A novel analytic approach for outcome prediction in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma by [(18)F]FDG PET/CT

PURPOSE: This study aimed to develop a novel analytic approach based on 2-deoxy-2-[(18)F]fluoro-D-glucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography ([(18)F]FDG PET/CT) radiomic signature (RS) and International Prognostic Index (IPI) to predict the progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). METHODS: We retrospectively enrolled 152 DLBCL patients and divided them into a training cohort (n = 100) and a validation cohort (n = 52). A total of 1245 radiomic features were extracted from the total metabolic tumor volume (TMTV) and the metabolic bulk volume (MBV) of pre-treatment PET/CT images. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm was applied to develop the RS. Cox regression analysis was used to construct hybrid nomograms based on different RS and clinical variables. The performances of hybrid nomograms were evaluated using the time-dependent receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. The clinical utilities of prediction nomograms were determined via decision curve analysis. The predictive efficiency of different RS, clinical variables, and hybrid nomograms was compared. RESULTS: The RS and IPI were identified as independent predictors of PFS and OS, and were selected to construct hybrid nomograms. Both TMTV- and MBV-based hybrid nomograms had significantly higher values of area under the curve (AUC) than IPI in training and validation cohorts (all P < 0.05), while no significant difference was found between TMTV- and MBV-based hybrid nomograms (P > 0.05). The Hosmer–Lemeshow test showed that both TMTV- and MBV-based hybrid nomograms calibrated well in the training and validation cohorts (all P > 0.05). Decision curve analysis indicated that hybrid nomograms had higher net benefits than IPI. CONCLUSION: The hybrid nomograms combining RS with IPI could significantly improve survival prediction in DLBCL. Radiomic analysis on MBV may serve as a potential approach for prognosis assessment in DLBCL. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04317313. Registered March 16, 2020. Public site: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04317313 SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00259-021-05572-0.