Trajectories of energy intake distribution and subsequent risk of hyperglycemia among Chinese adults: findings from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (1997–2018)

AIMS: Few studies have examined the secular trend of the energy intake distribution, and its effect on future risk of hyperglycemia. This study aims to describe trajectories of energy intake distribution over 12 years and relate them to subsequent risk of hyperglycemia over 9 years of follow-up. METHODS: Our study used ten waves of data from the CHNS survey, a population-based longitudinal survey in China, ongoing since 1989. We examined a cohort of adult participants who were free from diabetes but had at least three waves of dietary data from 1997 to 2009. We assessed energy intake using three consecutive 24 h recalls. We used these data to identify trajectory groups of energy intake distribution by multi-trajectory model based on energy intake proportions of breakfast, lunch, and dinner. We followed up participants for hyperglycemia, diabetes, and impaired fasting glucose for 9 years from 2009 to 2018. Outcomes were ascertained with fasting glucose, serum HbA1c, and self-report of diabetes and/or glucose-lowering medication. We estimated relative risk (RR) for hyperglycemia, diabetes, and impaired fasting glucose by identified trajectory groups using multilevel mixed-effects modified Poisson regression with robust (sandwich) estimation of variance. Gender difference was additionally examined. RESULTS: A total of 4417 participants were included. Four trajectory groups were identified, characterized and labeled by “Energy evenly distributed with steady trend group” (Group 1), “Dinner and lunch energy dominant with relatively steady trend group” (Group 2), “Dinner energy dominant with increasing trend and breakfast energy with declining trend group” (Group 3), and “breakfast and dinner energy dominant with increasing trend group” (Group 4). During 48,091 person-years, 1053 cases of incident hyperglycemia occurred, 537 cases of incident diabetes occurred, and 516 cases of impaired fasting glucose occurred. Compared with Group 1, Group 3 was associated with higher subsequent risk of incident hyperglycemia in 9 years of follow-up (RR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.02, 1.61). No association was found for incident diabetes and impaired fasting glucose. Among males, Group 3 was associated with higher risk of incident hyperglycemia in 9 years of follow-up (RR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.07, 1.94). No relationship was found in females. CONCLUSIONS: Energy intake distribution characterized by over 40% of energy intake from dinner with a rising trend over years was associated with higher long-term risk of hyperglycemia in Chinese adults. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00394-021-02745-3.