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Does economic policy uncertainty undermine stability of agricultural imports? Evidence from China

China is the world’s largest importer of agricultural products. Stability of agricultural imports directly affects domestic food availability, and hence influences national food security. This study is important to gauge effects of uncertainty resulting from global and domestic economic policy chang...

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Autores principales: Zhang, Zhaohua, Brizmohun, Roshini, Li, Gang, Wang, Ping
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8923469/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35290414
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0265279
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author Zhang, Zhaohua
Brizmohun, Roshini
Li, Gang
Wang, Ping
author_facet Zhang, Zhaohua
Brizmohun, Roshini
Li, Gang
Wang, Ping
author_sort Zhang, Zhaohua
collection PubMed
description China is the world’s largest importer of agricultural products. Stability of agricultural imports directly affects domestic food availability, and hence influences national food security. This study is important to gauge effects of uncertainty resulting from global and domestic economic policy changes on the stability component of food security in China. Though many studies have explored the determinants and consequences of Chinese agricultural trade, research focusing on stability of agricultural imports is lacking. To fill the gap, this study calculates duration length and survival probability of China’s agri-food imports, and estimates effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the stability. Results show that trade duration of the agri-food imports is 12.07 months in China. However, 51.69% of disrupted trade relationships would resume after 2 months and 92.68% of temporarily interrupted trade relationships return to the market after 12 months. Empirical estimations show that global EPU has a larger impact on the stability of agricultural imports than Chinese EPU. Although Chinese EPU has heterogeneous effects on imports of different agri-food products in China, global EPU does not. Stabilized domestic food price and improved domestic agricultural productivity would improve stability of the imports significantly. The study concludes that China’s agricultural imports are less dynamic than previous studies claimed. However, EPU significantly erodes the trade stability. To offset negative effects of EPU on the stability, government should pay more attention on stabilizing domestic food price volatility and increasing food productivity, and therefore improve food security in China.
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spelling pubmed-89234692022-03-16 Does economic policy uncertainty undermine stability of agricultural imports? Evidence from China Zhang, Zhaohua Brizmohun, Roshini Li, Gang Wang, Ping PLoS One Research Article China is the world’s largest importer of agricultural products. Stability of agricultural imports directly affects domestic food availability, and hence influences national food security. This study is important to gauge effects of uncertainty resulting from global and domestic economic policy changes on the stability component of food security in China. Though many studies have explored the determinants and consequences of Chinese agricultural trade, research focusing on stability of agricultural imports is lacking. To fill the gap, this study calculates duration length and survival probability of China’s agri-food imports, and estimates effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the stability. Results show that trade duration of the agri-food imports is 12.07 months in China. However, 51.69% of disrupted trade relationships would resume after 2 months and 92.68% of temporarily interrupted trade relationships return to the market after 12 months. Empirical estimations show that global EPU has a larger impact on the stability of agricultural imports than Chinese EPU. Although Chinese EPU has heterogeneous effects on imports of different agri-food products in China, global EPU does not. Stabilized domestic food price and improved domestic agricultural productivity would improve stability of the imports significantly. The study concludes that China’s agricultural imports are less dynamic than previous studies claimed. However, EPU significantly erodes the trade stability. To offset negative effects of EPU on the stability, government should pay more attention on stabilizing domestic food price volatility and increasing food productivity, and therefore improve food security in China. Public Library of Science 2022-03-15 /pmc/articles/PMC8923469/ /pubmed/35290414 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0265279 Text en © 2022 Zhang et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Zhang, Zhaohua
Brizmohun, Roshini
Li, Gang
Wang, Ping
Does economic policy uncertainty undermine stability of agricultural imports? Evidence from China
title Does economic policy uncertainty undermine stability of agricultural imports? Evidence from China
title_full Does economic policy uncertainty undermine stability of agricultural imports? Evidence from China
title_fullStr Does economic policy uncertainty undermine stability of agricultural imports? Evidence from China
title_full_unstemmed Does economic policy uncertainty undermine stability of agricultural imports? Evidence from China
title_short Does economic policy uncertainty undermine stability of agricultural imports? Evidence from China
title_sort does economic policy uncertainty undermine stability of agricultural imports? evidence from china
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8923469/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35290414
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0265279
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