A Predictive Nomogram for Lymph Node Metastasis in Supraglottic Laryngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

PURPOSE: Lymph node metastasis (LNM) has a negative impact on the survival of patients with laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC). Supraglottic LSCC is the most common cause of cervical lymph node metastases due to the extensive submucosal lymphatic plexus. The accurate evaluation of LNM before surgery can inform improved decisions in the clinic. In this study, we aimed to construct a nomogram to predict LNM in primary supraglottic LSCC patients. METHODS: The data from 314 patients with clinico-pathological confirmed supraglottic LSCC who underwent partial or total laryngectomy in our department from 2016 to 2020 were retrospectively analyzed (243 cases in the training set and 71 cases in the validation set). A multivariate logistic regression model was used to screen out independent risk factors and a nomogram was established. The accuracy and discrimination ability of the nomogram was evaluated using a consistency index and calibration curves. RESULTS: Tumor size, tumor differentiation degree and LMR (lymphocyte-monocyte ratio) were selected to construct the nomogram. The C-index was 0.731 in the training set and 0.707 in the validation set. The calibration curves of the training and validation group both exhibited close agreement between the predicted and the actual presence of LNM. CONCLUSIONS: A nomogram was established based on routinely measured pretreatment variables and the predicted results improved the management of patients with LNM.