Still beyond a chance: Distribution of faults in elite show-jumping horses

This study aimed to identify factors that can influence show-jumping performance during top level competitions in the Western European League (2017/2018, CSI5*). The performance data of 144 riders and 222 horses were obtained from video records (FEI TV/ website). Riders with horses achieved a total of 9114 jumping-efforts over 320 obstacles including oxers (n = 142), oxers with water (n = 15), triple bars (n = 6), verticals (n = 136), verticals with water (n = 14) and walls (n = 7). Obstacles in the first round (FR) or in jump off (JO) were standing either as single (n = 6290) or as a combination of two or three fences in a row (n = 2824). The overall fault rate (dropping the pole or refusal/run-out to jump) was 7.85%. The probability of a fault increased with the rank of the fence in the course of FR (F ((1, 7649)) = 5.29, P < 0.0001, GzLMM; PROC GLIMMIX, SAS). The highest probability of a fault (F ((5, 7649)) = 2.51, P < 0.03) in FR was found on the vertical obstacle with water (0.125 ± 0.021, LSMEAN ± standard error) while the lowest was on the triple bar (0.037 ± 0.015) and wall (0.048 ± 0.020). Riders who completed more starts in previous competitions achieved a lower fault rate (F ((1, 7649)) = 6.17, P < 0.02) in FR as well as in JO (F ((1, 931)) = 7.05, P < 0.01). The probability of faults in JO decreased with a higher speed (F ((1, 931)) = 6.66, P < 0.01) but there was no significant correlation between the speed in JO and FR in individual horses (r = 0.26, P < 0.01). More faults were found on the fences within combinations in both rounds (FR, JO). The highest probability of faults was found on the first fence (FR 0.095 ± 0.016; JO 0.043 ± 0.008) or second fence (JO 0.055 ± 0.020) of the double combination compared to the least probability of faults on single obstacles (FR 0.057 ± 0.007, F ((5, 7649)) = 5.29, P < 0.0001; JO 0.100 ± 0.027, F ((1, 931)) = 3.39, P < 0.04). Other tested factors did not affect show-jumping performance. Some faults are still more likely and not random in a show-jumping course, therefore, the appropriate training focus can improve performance and safety in competitions.