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Modeling COVID-19 daily cases in Senegal using a generalized Waring regression model
The rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has triggered substantial economic and social disruptions worldwide. The number of infection-induced deaths in Senegal in particular and West Africa in general are minimal when compared with the rest of the world. We use count regression (statistical) models...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Elsevier B.V.
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8928709/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35313718 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2022.127245 |
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author | Gning, Lucien Ndour, Cheikh Tchuenche, J.M. |
author_facet | Gning, Lucien Ndour, Cheikh Tchuenche, J.M. |
author_sort | Gning, Lucien |
collection | PubMed |
description | The rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has triggered substantial economic and social disruptions worldwide. The number of infection-induced deaths in Senegal in particular and West Africa in general are minimal when compared with the rest of the world. We use count regression (statistical) models such as the generalized Waring regression model to forecast the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in Senegal. The generalized Waring regression model has an advantage over other models such as the negative binomial regression model because it considers factors that cannot be observed or measured, but that are known to affect the number of daily COVID-19 cases. Results from this study reveal that the generalized Waring regression model fits the data better than most of the usual count regression models, and could better explain some of the intrinsic characteristics of the disease dynamics. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8928709 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Elsevier B.V. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-89287092022-03-17 Modeling COVID-19 daily cases in Senegal using a generalized Waring regression model Gning, Lucien Ndour, Cheikh Tchuenche, J.M. Physica A Article The rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has triggered substantial economic and social disruptions worldwide. The number of infection-induced deaths in Senegal in particular and West Africa in general are minimal when compared with the rest of the world. We use count regression (statistical) models such as the generalized Waring regression model to forecast the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in Senegal. The generalized Waring regression model has an advantage over other models such as the negative binomial regression model because it considers factors that cannot be observed or measured, but that are known to affect the number of daily COVID-19 cases. Results from this study reveal that the generalized Waring regression model fits the data better than most of the usual count regression models, and could better explain some of the intrinsic characteristics of the disease dynamics. Elsevier B.V. 2022-07-01 2022-03-17 /pmc/articles/PMC8928709/ /pubmed/35313718 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2022.127245 Text en © 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Article Gning, Lucien Ndour, Cheikh Tchuenche, J.M. Modeling COVID-19 daily cases in Senegal using a generalized Waring regression model |
title | Modeling COVID-19 daily cases in Senegal using a generalized Waring regression model |
title_full | Modeling COVID-19 daily cases in Senegal using a generalized Waring regression model |
title_fullStr | Modeling COVID-19 daily cases in Senegal using a generalized Waring regression model |
title_full_unstemmed | Modeling COVID-19 daily cases in Senegal using a generalized Waring regression model |
title_short | Modeling COVID-19 daily cases in Senegal using a generalized Waring regression model |
title_sort | modeling covid-19 daily cases in senegal using a generalized waring regression model |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8928709/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35313718 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2022.127245 |
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