Predicting High Flow Nasal Cannula Failure in an Intensive Care Unit Using a Recurrent Neural Network With Transfer Learning and Input Data Perseveration: Retrospective Analysis

BACKGROUND: High flow nasal cannula (HFNC) provides noninvasive respiratory support for children who are critically ill who may tolerate it more readily than other noninvasive ventilation (NIV) techniques such as bilevel positive airway pressure and continuous positive airway pressure. Moreover, HFNC may preclude the need for mechanical ventilation (intubation). Nevertheless, NIV or intubation may ultimately be necessary for certain patients. Timely prediction of HFNC failure can provide an indication for increasing respiratory support. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to develop and compare machine learning (ML) models to predict HFNC failure. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted using the Virtual Pediatric Intensive Care Unit database of electronic medical records of patients admitted to a tertiary pediatric intensive care unit between January 2010 and February 2020. Patients aged <19 years, without apnea, and receiving HFNC treatment were included. A long short-term memory (LSTM) model using 517 variables (vital signs, laboratory data, and other clinical parameters) was trained to generate a continuous prediction of HFNC failure, defined as escalation to NIV or intubation within 24 hours of HFNC initiation. For comparison, 7 other models were trained: a logistic regression (LR) using the same 517 variables, another LR using only 14 variables, and 5 additional LSTM-based models using the same 517 variables as the first LSTM model and incorporating additional ML techniques (transfer learning, input perseveration, and ensembling). Performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve at various times following HFNC initiation. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of predictions at 2 hours after HFNC initiation were also evaluated. These metrics were also computed for a cohort with primarily respiratory diagnoses. RESULTS: A total of 834 HFNC trials (455 [54.6%] training, 173 [20.7%] validation, and 206 [24.7%] test) met the inclusion criteria, of which 175 (21%; training: 103/455, 22.6%; validation: 30/173, 17.3%; test: 42/206, 20.4%) escalated to NIV or intubation. The LSTM models trained with transfer learning generally performed better than the LR models, with the best LSTM model achieving an AUROC of 0.78 versus 0.66 for the 14-variable LR and 0.71 for the 517-variable LR 2 hours after initiation. All models except for the 14-variable LR achieved higher AUROCs in the respiratory cohort than in the general intensive care unit population. CONCLUSIONS: ML models trained using electronic medical record data were able to identify children at risk of HFNC failure within 24 hours of initiation. LSTM models that incorporated transfer learning, input data perseveration, and ensembling showed improved performance compared with the LR and standard LSTM models.