Nomogram based on clinical and laboratory characteristics of euploid embryos using the data in PGT-A: a euploid-prediction model

BACKGROUND: The evaluation of embryo morphology may be inaccurate. A euploid prediction model is needed to provide the best and individualized counseling about embryo selection based on patients and embryo characteristics. METHODS: Our objective was to develop a euploid-prediction model for evaluating blastocyst embryos, based on data from a large cohort of patients undergoing pre-implantation genetic testing for aneuploidy (PGT-A). This retrospective, single-center cohort study included data from 1610 blastocysts which were performed PGT-A with known genetic outcomes. The study population was divided into the training and validation cohorts in a 3:1 ratio. The performance of the euploid-prediction model was quantified using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). In addition, a nomogram was drawn to provide quantitative and convenient tools in predicting euploid. RESULTS: We developed a reliable euploid-prediction model and can directly assess the probability of euploid with the AUC (95%CI) of 0.859 (0.834,0.872) in the training cohort, and 0.852 (0.831,0.879) in the validation cohort, respectively. The euploid-prediction model showed sensitivities of 0.903 and specificities of 0.578. CONCLUSIONS: The euploid-prediction model is a reliable prediction model and can directly assess the probability of euploid. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12884-022-04569-3.