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Novel use of online optimization in a mathematical model of COVID-19 to guide the relaxation of pandemic mitigation measures
Since early 2020, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)—implemented at varying levels of severity and based on widely-divergent perspectives of risk tolerance—have been the primary means to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. This paper aims to identify how risk tolerance and vaccination rates impact...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8932375/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35304511 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-08389-5 |
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author | Bianchin, Gianluca Dall’Anese, Emiliano Poveda, Jorge I. Jacobson, David Carlton, Elizabeth J. Buchwald, Andrea G. |
author_facet | Bianchin, Gianluca Dall’Anese, Emiliano Poveda, Jorge I. Jacobson, David Carlton, Elizabeth J. Buchwald, Andrea G. |
author_sort | Bianchin, Gianluca |
collection | PubMed |
description | Since early 2020, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)—implemented at varying levels of severity and based on widely-divergent perspectives of risk tolerance—have been the primary means to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. This paper aims to identify how risk tolerance and vaccination rates impact the rate at which a population can return to pre-pandemic contact behavior. To this end, we developed a novel mathematical model and we used techniques from feedback control to inform data-driven decision-making. We use this model to identify optimal levels of NPIs across geographical regions in order to guarantee that hospitalizations will not exceed given risk tolerance thresholds. Results are shown for the state of Colorado, United States, and they suggest that: coordination in decision-making across regions is essential to maintain the daily number of hospitalizations below the desired limits; increasing risk tolerance can decrease the number of days required to discontinue NPIs, at the cost of an increased number of deaths; and if vaccination uptake is less than 70%, at most levels of risk tolerance, return to pre-pandemic contact behaviors before the early months of 2022 may newly jeopardize the healthcare system. The sooner we can acquire population-level vaccination of greater than 70%, the sooner we can safely return to pre-pandemic behaviors. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8932375 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-89323752022-03-21 Novel use of online optimization in a mathematical model of COVID-19 to guide the relaxation of pandemic mitigation measures Bianchin, Gianluca Dall’Anese, Emiliano Poveda, Jorge I. Jacobson, David Carlton, Elizabeth J. Buchwald, Andrea G. Sci Rep Article Since early 2020, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)—implemented at varying levels of severity and based on widely-divergent perspectives of risk tolerance—have been the primary means to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. This paper aims to identify how risk tolerance and vaccination rates impact the rate at which a population can return to pre-pandemic contact behavior. To this end, we developed a novel mathematical model and we used techniques from feedback control to inform data-driven decision-making. We use this model to identify optimal levels of NPIs across geographical regions in order to guarantee that hospitalizations will not exceed given risk tolerance thresholds. Results are shown for the state of Colorado, United States, and they suggest that: coordination in decision-making across regions is essential to maintain the daily number of hospitalizations below the desired limits; increasing risk tolerance can decrease the number of days required to discontinue NPIs, at the cost of an increased number of deaths; and if vaccination uptake is less than 70%, at most levels of risk tolerance, return to pre-pandemic contact behaviors before the early months of 2022 may newly jeopardize the healthcare system. The sooner we can acquire population-level vaccination of greater than 70%, the sooner we can safely return to pre-pandemic behaviors. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-03-18 /pmc/articles/PMC8932375/ /pubmed/35304511 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-08389-5 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Bianchin, Gianluca Dall’Anese, Emiliano Poveda, Jorge I. Jacobson, David Carlton, Elizabeth J. Buchwald, Andrea G. Novel use of online optimization in a mathematical model of COVID-19 to guide the relaxation of pandemic mitigation measures |
title | Novel use of online optimization in a mathematical model of COVID-19 to guide the relaxation of pandemic mitigation measures |
title_full | Novel use of online optimization in a mathematical model of COVID-19 to guide the relaxation of pandemic mitigation measures |
title_fullStr | Novel use of online optimization in a mathematical model of COVID-19 to guide the relaxation of pandemic mitigation measures |
title_full_unstemmed | Novel use of online optimization in a mathematical model of COVID-19 to guide the relaxation of pandemic mitigation measures |
title_short | Novel use of online optimization in a mathematical model of COVID-19 to guide the relaxation of pandemic mitigation measures |
title_sort | novel use of online optimization in a mathematical model of covid-19 to guide the relaxation of pandemic mitigation measures |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8932375/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35304511 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-08389-5 |
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