Moving toward decoupling and collective resilience? Assessing US and Japan’s economic statecraft against China

Facing a rise in great power competition, states are increasingly paying attention to economic statecraft; that is, using economic means to pursue national security and foreign policy goals. Factors such as asymmetric interdependence in the global economy and information networks, the rapid development of dual-use technologies, and the shift of US foreign policy doctrines from liberalism to geopolitics have contributed to the rise of economic statecraft. Regarding China as an opponent in high-tech and geopolitical competition, the US is on the one hand continuously strengthening coercive economic statecraft against China, especially through technological “decoupling.” On the other hand, the US is seeking to unite the so-called like-minded countries to build technological and supply chain coalitions that exclude China. As an ally of the US, Japan is imitating and following the US, while also emphasizing the protection and development of its own “strategically indispensable” industries, striving to maintain a balance between preventing technology leakage and maintaining exports to China. While coercive economic statecraft weakens and contains opponents, it will also harm the US itself as well as its allies. In the future, the US and Japan will further strengthen economic statecraft targeting China, but implementation is likely to be rational and balanced, in an effort to secure “competitive coexistence” with China.