Higher vaccination rates predict reduction in SARS-CoV-2 transmission across the United States

PURPOSE: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) began proliferating widely throughout the world in late 2019/early 2020, creating a global pandemic and health crisis. Although vaccines became available to the public approximately 1 year after the onset of the pandemic, there still remains much hesitancy surrounding vaccination. One key concern comes from reports of breakthrough infections among the vaccinated that show comparable levels of peak viral load as the unvaccinated, calling into question the ability of vaccines to prevent transmission. Therefore young, healthy individuals who are at low risk of serious complications themselves have little incentive to receive a vaccine that they are not convinced will protect others around them. To address this important concern, this study aimed to evaluate the extent to which vaccination rates are associated with reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission among the unvaccinated population. METHODS: An observational study was conducted in the United States of America throughout the months of June through September, 2021. Vaccination rate and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) were obtained for each state, along with a number of important control variables. Panel data regression was used to predict incidence among the unvaccinated based on each state’s vaccination rate. RESULTS: States with a higher proportion of fully vaccinated individuals reported fewer new cases among the remaining unvaccinated population. CONCLUSION: These data add to accumulating evidence that COVID-19 vaccinations can indeed slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2, and are an important tool in society’s arsenal to put this pandemic behind us. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s15010-022-01802-1.