A method for forecasting the number of hospitalized and deceased based on the number of newly infected during a pandemic

In this paper we propose a phenomenological model for forecasting the numbers of deaths and of hospitalized persons in a pandemic wave, assuming that these numbers linearly depend, with certain delays [Formula: see text] for deaths and [Formula: see text] for hospitalized, on the number of new cases...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Scitovski, Rudolf, Sabo, Kristian, Ungar, Šime
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2022
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8938470/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35314747
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-08795-9
Descripción
Sumario:In this paper we propose a phenomenological model for forecasting the numbers of deaths and of hospitalized persons in a pandemic wave, assuming that these numbers linearly depend, with certain delays [Formula: see text] for deaths and [Formula: see text] for hospitalized, on the number of new cases. We illustrate the application of our method using data from the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Croatia, but the method can be applied to any new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as to any other possible pandemic. We also supply freely available Mathematica modules to implement the method.

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