A method for forecasting the number of hospitalized and deceased based on the number of newly infected during a pandemic

In this paper we propose a phenomenological model for forecasting the numbers of deaths and of hospitalized persons in a pandemic wave, assuming that these numbers linearly depend, with certain delays [Formula: see text] for deaths and [Formula: see text] for hospitalized, on the number of new cases...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Scitovski, Rudolf, Sabo, Kristian, Ungar, Šime
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2022
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8938470/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35314747
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-08795-9
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author Scitovski, Rudolf
Sabo, Kristian
Ungar, Šime
author_facet Scitovski, Rudolf
Sabo, Kristian
Ungar, Šime
author_sort Scitovski, Rudolf
collection PubMed
description In this paper we propose a phenomenological model for forecasting the numbers of deaths and of hospitalized persons in a pandemic wave, assuming that these numbers linearly depend, with certain delays [Formula: see text] for deaths and [Formula: see text] for hospitalized, on the number of new cases. We illustrate the application of our method using data from the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Croatia, but the method can be applied to any new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as to any other possible pandemic. We also supply freely available Mathematica modules to implement the method.
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spelling pubmed-89384702022-03-30 A method for forecasting the number of hospitalized and deceased based on the number of newly infected during a pandemic Scitovski, Rudolf Sabo, Kristian Ungar, Šime Sci Rep Article In this paper we propose a phenomenological model for forecasting the numbers of deaths and of hospitalized persons in a pandemic wave, assuming that these numbers linearly depend, with certain delays [Formula: see text] for deaths and [Formula: see text] for hospitalized, on the number of new cases. We illustrate the application of our method using data from the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Croatia, but the method can be applied to any new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as to any other possible pandemic. We also supply freely available Mathematica modules to implement the method. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-03-21 /pmc/articles/PMC8938470/ /pubmed/35314747 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-08795-9 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Scitovski, Rudolf
Sabo, Kristian
Ungar, Šime
A method for forecasting the number of hospitalized and deceased based on the number of newly infected during a pandemic
title A method for forecasting the number of hospitalized and deceased based on the number of newly infected during a pandemic
title_full A method for forecasting the number of hospitalized and deceased based on the number of newly infected during a pandemic
title_fullStr A method for forecasting the number of hospitalized and deceased based on the number of newly infected during a pandemic
title_full_unstemmed A method for forecasting the number of hospitalized and deceased based on the number of newly infected during a pandemic
title_short A method for forecasting the number of hospitalized and deceased based on the number of newly infected during a pandemic
title_sort method for forecasting the number of hospitalized and deceased based on the number of newly infected during a pandemic
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8938470/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35314747
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-08795-9
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