Value and prognostic impact of a deep learning segmentation model of COVID-19 lung lesions on low-dose chest CT

OBJECTIVES: 1) To develop a deep learning (DL) pipeline allowing quantification of COVID-19 pulmonary lesions on low-dose computed tomography (LDCT). 2) To assess the prognostic value of DL-driven lesion quantification. METHODS: This monocentric retrospective study included training and test datasets taken from 144 and 30 patients, respectively. The reference was the manual segmentation of 3 labels: normal lung, ground-glass opacity(GGO) and consolidation(Cons). Model performance was evaluated with technical metrics, disease volume and extent. Intra- and interobserver agreement were recorded. The prognostic value of DL-driven disease extent was assessed in 1621 distinct patients using C-statistics. The end point was a combined outcome defined as death, hospitalization>10 days, intensive care unit hospitalization or oxygen therapy. RESULTS: The Dice coefficients for lesion (GGO+Cons) segmentations were 0.75±0.08, exceeding the values for human interobserver (0.70±0.08; 0.70±0.10) and intraobserver measures (0.72±0.09). DL-driven lesion quantification had a stronger correlation with the reference than inter- or intraobserver measures. After stepwise selection and adjustment for clinical characteristics, quantification significantly increased the prognostic accuracy of the model (0.82 vs. 0.90; p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: A DL-driven model can provide reproducible and accurate segmentation of COVID-19 lesions on LDCT. Automatic lesion quantification has independent prognostic value for the identification of high-risk patients.