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Cities in the epidemic, the epidemic in cities: Reconstruction of COVID-19 development in Polish cities

The Covid-19 pandemic, with its epicentres in cities, came as the most severe social, economic and financial shock of the 21st century. The reconstruction of the pandemic spread in cities, the determination of factors conducive to and preventing from SARS-CoV-2 virus infections as well as searching...

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Autores principales: Parysek, Jerzy J., Mierzejewska, Lidia
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8940580/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35340452
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2022.103676
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author Parysek, Jerzy J.
Mierzejewska, Lidia
author_facet Parysek, Jerzy J.
Mierzejewska, Lidia
author_sort Parysek, Jerzy J.
collection PubMed
description The Covid-19 pandemic, with its epicentres in cities, came as the most severe social, economic and financial shock of the 21st century. The reconstruction of the pandemic spread in cities, the determination of factors conducive to and preventing from SARS-CoV-2 virus infections as well as searching for the ways to combat it and its effects have become the subject of many studies and analyses. The results presented in this article are part of this research. The study covered 20 large Polish cities with different functions, in the set of which: (1) the course of the infection process (by means of a rarely used trajectory method) was determined as well as its temporal variation (variance), (2) cities were classified in terms of the similarity of the epidemic process (correlation analysis), and (3) the factors conducive to infections presented in the literature (using a multivariate regression method) were verified. In this case the investigation was also carried out on the set of 66 large cities. Generally, the relative number of infections (per 10,000 inhabitants), i.e. the intensity of infections, was used as the basis for the analysis. The research has shown that the size, function and location within the country have no influence on the course and intensity of the epidemic in particular cities. Unfortunately, it was not possible to identify factors that could be responsible for infections, or at least that could determine the risk of infections (no confirmed impact on infections of population density, the level of poverty, the proportion of a post-working age population or the level of people's health). Thus, the obtained results testify to the individual nature of the spread of the epidemic in each city and to the possible influence of other explanatory features on the infection level than those considered in this investigation, or to the level of infections as the effect of the synergetic interaction of more than just socio-economic features. The solution to this issue remains open, as it seems, not only in the case of Polish cities.
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spelling pubmed-89405802022-03-23 Cities in the epidemic, the epidemic in cities: Reconstruction of COVID-19 development in Polish cities Parysek, Jerzy J. Mierzejewska, Lidia Cities Article The Covid-19 pandemic, with its epicentres in cities, came as the most severe social, economic and financial shock of the 21st century. The reconstruction of the pandemic spread in cities, the determination of factors conducive to and preventing from SARS-CoV-2 virus infections as well as searching for the ways to combat it and its effects have become the subject of many studies and analyses. The results presented in this article are part of this research. The study covered 20 large Polish cities with different functions, in the set of which: (1) the course of the infection process (by means of a rarely used trajectory method) was determined as well as its temporal variation (variance), (2) cities were classified in terms of the similarity of the epidemic process (correlation analysis), and (3) the factors conducive to infections presented in the literature (using a multivariate regression method) were verified. In this case the investigation was also carried out on the set of 66 large cities. Generally, the relative number of infections (per 10,000 inhabitants), i.e. the intensity of infections, was used as the basis for the analysis. The research has shown that the size, function and location within the country have no influence on the course and intensity of the epidemic in particular cities. Unfortunately, it was not possible to identify factors that could be responsible for infections, or at least that could determine the risk of infections (no confirmed impact on infections of population density, the level of poverty, the proportion of a post-working age population or the level of people's health). Thus, the obtained results testify to the individual nature of the spread of the epidemic in each city and to the possible influence of other explanatory features on the infection level than those considered in this investigation, or to the level of infections as the effect of the synergetic interaction of more than just socio-economic features. The solution to this issue remains open, as it seems, not only in the case of Polish cities. The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 2022-06 2022-03-23 /pmc/articles/PMC8940580/ /pubmed/35340452 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2022.103676 Text en © 2022 The Authors Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Parysek, Jerzy J.
Mierzejewska, Lidia
Cities in the epidemic, the epidemic in cities: Reconstruction of COVID-19 development in Polish cities
title Cities in the epidemic, the epidemic in cities: Reconstruction of COVID-19 development in Polish cities
title_full Cities in the epidemic, the epidemic in cities: Reconstruction of COVID-19 development in Polish cities
title_fullStr Cities in the epidemic, the epidemic in cities: Reconstruction of COVID-19 development in Polish cities
title_full_unstemmed Cities in the epidemic, the epidemic in cities: Reconstruction of COVID-19 development in Polish cities
title_short Cities in the epidemic, the epidemic in cities: Reconstruction of COVID-19 development in Polish cities
title_sort cities in the epidemic, the epidemic in cities: reconstruction of covid-19 development in polish cities
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8940580/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35340452
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2022.103676
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