A longitudinal model for the Mayo Clinical Score and its sub-components in patients with ulcerative colitis

Clinical trials in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) face the challenge of high and variable placebo response rates. The Mayo Clinical Score (MCS) is used widely as the primary endpoint in clinical trials to describe the clinical status of patients with UC. The MCS is comprised of four subscores, each scored 0, 1, 2 and 3: rectal bleeding (RB), stool frequency (SF), physician’s global assessment (PGA), and endoscopy (ENDO) subscore. Excluding the PGA subscore gives the modified MCS. Quantitative insight on the placebo response, and its impact on the components of the MCS over time, can better inform clinical trial design and interpretation. Longitudinal modeling of the MCS, and the modified MCS, can be challenging due to complex clinical trial design, population heterogeneity, and limited assessments for the ENDO subscore. The current study pooled patient-level placebo/standard of care (SoC) arm data from five clinical trials in the TransCelerate database to develop a longitudinal placebo response model that describes the MCS over time in patients with UC. MCS subscores were modeled using proportional odds models, and the removal of patients from the placebo/SoC arm, or “dropout”, was modeled using logistic regression models. The subscore and dropout models were linked to allow for the prediction of the MCS and the modified MCS. Stepwise covariate modeling identified prior exposure to TNF-α antagonists as a statistically significant predictor on the RB + SF subscore. Patients with prior exposure to TNF-α antagonists had higher post-baseline RB + SF subscores than naive patients. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10928-021-09789-2.