Prediction of inpatient pressure ulcers based on routine healthcare data using machine learning methodology

Despite the relevance of pressure ulcers (PU) in inpatient care, the predictive power and role of care-related risk factors (e.g. anesthesia) remain unclear. We investigated the predictability of PU incidence and its association with multiple care variables. We included all somatic cases between 2014 and 2018 with length of stay ≥ 2d in a German university hospital. For regression analyses and prediction we used Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) as nonparametric modeling approach. To assess predictive accuracy, we compared BART, random forest, logistic regression (LR) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) using area under the curve (AUC), confusion matrices and multiple indicators of predictive performance (e.g. sensitivity, specificity, F1, positive/ negative predictive value) in the full dataset and subgroups. Analysing 149,006 cases revealed high predictive variable importance and associations between incident PU and ventilation, age, anesthesia (≥ 1 h) and number of care-involved wards. Despite high AUCs (range 0.89–0.90), many false negative predictions led to low sensitivity (range 0.04–0.10). Ventilation, age, anesthesia and number of care-involved wards were associated with incident PU. Using anesthesia as a proxy for immobility, an hourly repositioning is indicated. The low sensitivity indicates major challenges for correctly predicting PU based on routine data.