The Utility of ADC First-Order Histogram Features for the Prediction of Metachronous Metastases in Rectal Cancer: A Preliminary Study

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Metachronous metastases are the main factors affecting survival in rectal cancer, and 15–25% of patients will develop them at a 5-year follow-up. Early identification of patients with higher risk of developing distant metachronous metastases would help to improve therapeutic protocols and could allow for a more accurate, personalized management. Apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) represents an MRI quantitative biomarker, which can assess the diffusion characteristics of tissues, depending on the microscopic mobility of water, showing information related to tissue cellularity. First-order histogram-based features statistics describe the frequency distribution of intensity values within a region of interest, revealing microstructural alterations. In our study, we demonstrated that whole-tumor ADC first-order features may provide useful information for the assessment of rectal cancer prognosis, regarding the occurrence of metachronous metastases. ABSTRACT: This study aims the ability of first-order histogram-based features, derived from ADC maps, to predict the occurrence of metachronous metastases (MM) in rectal cancer. A total of 52 patients with pathologically confirmed rectal adenocarcinoma were retrospectively enrolled and divided into two groups: patients who developed metachronous metastases (n = 15) and patients without metachronous metastases (n = 37). We extracted 17 first-order (FO) histogram-based features from the pretreatment ADC maps. Student’s t-test and Mann–Whitney U test were used for the association between each FO feature and presence of MM. Statistically significant features were combined into a model, using the binary regression logistic method. The receiver operating curve analysis was used to determine the diagnostic performance of the individual parameters and combined model. There were significant differences in ADC 90th percentile, interquartile range, entropy, uniformity, variance, mean absolute deviation, and robust mean absolute deviation in patients with MM, as compared to those without MM (p values between 0.002–0.01). The best diagnostic was achieved by the 90th percentile and uniformity, yielding an AUC of 0.74 [95% CI: 0.60–0.8]). The combined model reached an AUC of 0.8 [95% CI: 0.66–0.90]. Our observations point out that ADC first-order features may be useful for predicting metachronous metastases in rectal cancer.