Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and dynamic efficiency decomposition of carbon emission efficiency in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is China’s substantial energy consumption base. The issue of carbon emission efficiency directly affects the ecological protection and high-quality development of the YRB. It is the key to achieving carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutralization in 2060 (“30.60”) double carbon emission reduction targets. Therefore, taking YRB as the research object, this paper first calculates the carbon emission and the decoupling state in the YRB. Secondly, the super-efficiency slacks-based measurement (SE-SBM) model is combined with the Malmquist index to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of YRB’s carbon emission efficiency from static and dynamic perspectives. Thirdly, the dynamic evolution characteristics of carbon emission efficiency are analyzed with the help of the Kernel density function. Finally, the Tobit model analyzes the influencing factors of YRB’s and China’s carbon emission efficiency. The results show that: (1) Among the nine provinces of YRB, the decoupling state between carbon emissions and economic growth in most provinces changes from weak decoupling to strong decoupling, and the decoupling elasticity index shows a fluctuating downward trend. (2) There are significant differences in carbon emission efficiency among provinces, but on the whole, it shows a stable growth trend. The high-value area of carbon emission efficiency is increasing, and the phenomenon of two-level differentiation is improving. The decline of the technological progress index causes the Malmquist index in Qinghai and Ningxia. On the contrary, the rise of the Malmquist index in the other seven provinces is caused by improving the technical efficiency index. (3) Industrial structure, economic development, and industrialization are the main positive factors affecting YRB’s carbon emission efficiency. Urbanization level, green development level, and energy consumption level are the leading negative indicators hindering YRB’s improvement of carbon emission efficiency. Therefore, targeted emission reduction suggestions should be formulated according to YRB’s resource endowment and development stage characteristics.