Performance Degradation Prediction Using LSTM with Optimized Parameters

Predicting the degradation of mechanical components, such as rolling bearings is critical to the proper monitoring of the condition of mechanical equipment. A new method, based on a long short-term memory network (LSTM) algorithm, has been developed to improve the accuracy of degradation prediction. The model parameters are optimized via improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO). Regarding how this applies to the rolling bearings, firstly, multi-dimension feature parameters are extracted from the bearing’s vibration signals and fused into responsive features by using the kernel joint approximate diagonalization of eigen-matrices (KJADE) method. Then, the between-class and within-class scatter (SS) are calculated to develop performance degradation indicators. Since network model parameters influence the predictive accuracy of the LSTM model, an IPSO algorithm is used to obtain the optimal prediction model via the LSTM model parameters’ optimization. Finally, the LSTM model, with said optimal parameters, was used to predict the degradation trend of the bearing’s performance. The experiment’s results show that the proposed method can effectively identify the trends of degradation and performance. Moreover, the predictive accuracy of this proposed method is greater than that of the extreme learning machine (ELM) and support vector regression (SVR), which are the algorithms conventionally used in degradation modeling.