Strong evidence for age as the single most dominant predictor of medically supervised driving test—mini mental status test outcomes provide only weak but significant moderate additional predictive value

BACKGROUND: With age, medical conditions impairing safe driving accumulate. Consequently, the risk of accidents increases. To mitigate this risk, Swiss law requires biannual assessments of the fitness to drive of elderly drivers. Drivers may prove their cognitive and physical capacity for safe driving in a medically supervised driving test (MSDT) when borderline cases, as indicated by low performance in a set of four cognitive tests, including e.g. the mini mental status test (MMST). Any prognostic, rather than indicative, relations for MSDT outcomes have neither been confirmed nor falsified so far. In order to avoid use of unsubstantiated rules of thumb, we here evaluate the predictive value for MSDT outcomes of the outcomes of the standard set of four cognitive tests, used in Swiss traffic medicine examinations. METHODS: We present descriptive information on age, gender and cognitive pretesting results of all MSDTs recorded in our case database from 2017 to 2019. Based on these retrospective cohort data, we used logistic regression to predict the binary outcome MSDT. An exploratory analysis used all available data (model 1). Based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), we then established a model including variables age and MMST (model 2). To evaluate the predictive value of the four cognitive assessments, model 3 included cognitive test outcomes only. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC) allowed evaluating discriminative performance of the three different models using independent validation data. RESULTS: Using N = 188 complete data sets of a total of 225 included cases, AIC identified age (p < 0.0008) and MMST (p = 0.024) as dominating predictors for MSDT outcomes with a median AUC of 0.71 (95%-CI 0.57–0.85) across different training and validation splits, while using the four cognitive test results exclusively yielded a median AUC of 0.55 (95%-CI 0.40–0.71). CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis provided strong evidence for age as the single most dominant predictor of MSDT outcomes. Adding MMST provides only weak additional predictive value for MSDT outcomes. Combining the results of four cognitive test used as standard screen in Swiss traffic medicine alone, proved to be of poor predictive value. This highlights the importance of MSDTs for balancing between the mitigation of risks by and the right to drive for the elderly.