Predicting diagnosis 4 years prior to Alzheimer’s disease incident

This study employed a deep learning longitudinal model, graph convolutional and recurrent neural network (graph-CNN-RNN), on a series of brain structural MRI scans for AD prognosis. It characterized whole-brain morphology via incorporating longitudinal cortical and subcortical morphology and defined a probabilistic risk for the prediction of AD as a function of age prior to clinical diagnosis. The graph-CNN-RNN model was trained on half of the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset (ADNI, n = 1559) and validated on the other half of the ADNI dataset and the Open Access Series of Imaging Studies-3 (OASIS-3, n = 930). Our findings demonstrated that the graph-CNN-RNN can reliably and robustly diagnose AD at the accuracy rate of 85% and above across all the time points for both datasets. The graph-CNN-RNN predicted the AD conversion from 0 to 4 years before the AD onset at ∼80% of accuracy. The AD probabilistic risk was associated with clinical traits, cognition, and amyloid burden assessed using [18F]-Florbetapir (AV45) positron emission tomography (PET) across all the time points. The graph-CNN-RNN provided the quantitative trajectory of brain morphology from prognosis to overt stages of AD. Such a deep learning tool and the AD probabilistic risk have great potential in clinical applications for AD prognosis.