Estimated lifetime risk of venous thromboembolism in men and women in a Danish nationwide cohort: impact of competing risk of death

Incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk varies by age and sex. Some studies have reported overall higher risk in men, especially when VTEs triggered by female reproductive factors are excluded. However, higher mortality rates in men may have led to overestimation of lifetime VTE risk in men compared with women. Therefore, we estimated the lifetime risk of VTE in men and women in a Danish, nationwide cohort, taking into account the competing risk of death. Within the population of Denmark (> 5 million persons), all first-time VTEs occurring in 1995–2016 were identified from the Danish National Patient Registry covering all Danish hospitals. The cumulative incidences of VTE were estimated in men and women with age as timescale, taking into account the competing risk of death. Estimated lifetime risk was defined as cumulative incidence at age 100. In a simulation study, we excluded the proportion of female cases that could be attributed to reproductive risk factors and re-estimated the cumulative incidence. We identified 123,543 incident VTEs. The cumulative incidence of VTE was 1.9% in women and 1.3% in men at age 50, 4.3% in women and 4.4% in men at age 70, and 9.3% in women and 8.1% in men at age 100. After accounting for VTEs attributed to reproductive factors, the corresponding incidences in women were 1.2% at age 50, 3.2% at age 70, and 8.2% at age 100. In conclusion, the estimated lifetime risk of VTE was slightly higher in women than in men when accounting for competing risk of death. Our simulation study suggested that reproductive risk factors contribute modestly to the estimated lifetime VTE risk in women. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10654-021-00813-w.