COVID-19 pandemic and mental health problems of adults in United States: mediating roles of cognitive concerns and behavioral changes

OBJECTIVES: We examined the associations of statewide COVID-19 conditions (i.e., state-level case and death rates) with individual-level Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD) and Major Depression Disorder (MDD) focusing on the salient mediating roles of individual-level cognitive concerns and behavioral changes. METHODS: Using a national representative sample of adults in the United States (n = 585,073), we fitted logistic regressions to examine the overall associations between the COVID-19 pandemic and GAD/MDD. We employed a causal mediation analysis with two mediators: cognitive concerns (i.e., concerns on going to the public, loss of income, food insufficiency, housing payment, and the economy) and behavioral changes (i.e., taking fewer trips, avoiding eating-out, more online-purchase, more curbside pick-up, and cancelling doctor's appointments). RESULTS: We found relationships of statewide COVID-19 cases with GAD (odds ratio [OR] = 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.05, 1.07) and MDD (OR = 1.08; 95% CI = 1.07, 1.09). The ORs were mediated by cognitive concerns for GAD (OR = 1.02, proportion mediated: 29%) and MDD (OR = 1.01, 17%). Another salient mediator was behavioral changes for GAD (OR = 1.02, 31%) and MDD (OR = 1.01, 15%). Similar associations were found with statewide COVID-19 death. CONCLUSIONS: Our mediation analyses suggest that cognitive concerns and behavioral changes are important mediators of the relationships between statewide COVID-19 case/death rates and GAD/MDD. COVID-19 pandemic may involve individual-level concerns and behavior changes, and such experiences are likely to affect mental health outcomes. Public health approaches to alleviate adverse mental health consequences should take into account the mediating factors. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00127-022-02265-3.