Time-varying spillovers among pilot carbon emission trading markets in China

Clarifying the time-varying spillovers among pilot carbon emission permit trading markets in China is an important foundation for building the national carbon emission trading market. We calculate the dynamic spillover of carbon price return among the pilot carbon emission permit trading markets in China with the time-varying connectedness approach. The dataset is constructed from transaction data from seven pilot carbon markets in China during the period of June 23, 2014, to December 31, 2020. The quantitative analysis suggests that (i) Beijing and Chongqing carbon emission trading markets are the main spillover markets of carbon price returns, with strong pricing power, while the Guangdong and Tianjin markets are the main receivers of the price return spillover in other pilot carbon emission trading markets. (ii) The spillover effect among China’s carbon markets has a strong policy orientation. The improvement and development of the carbon market driven by macroeconomic regulation and control policies can effectively improve the spillover ability of the carbon market, and the market trading activity, namely the volatility of the carbon price return rate, can amplify the spillover ability of the carbon market in the short term. (iii) There exist three types of price return spillover among China’s pilot carbon emission trading markets, including central divergence, one-way chain transmission, and circular spillover. Along with the improvement of market operation efficiency, the central divergent type of spillover shifts to the pattern of circular spillover. It is necessary for the government to improve market efficiency and ensure the coordinated development of China’s pilot carbon emission trading market and national carbon emission trading market. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-022-19914-4.