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Secular Trends of Acute Viral Hepatitis Incidence and Mortality in China, 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction to 2030: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
BACKGROUND: Understanding the patterns and trends in the context of both incidence and mortality and anticipating future trends is important for viral hepatitis prevention, treatment, and guiding resource allocation in China. The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive temporal analysi...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8962367/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35360747 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2022.842088 |
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author | Su, Xing Zheng, Lin Zhang, Huami Shen, Ting Liu, Yingna Hu, Xiaowei |
author_facet | Su, Xing Zheng, Lin Zhang, Huami Shen, Ting Liu, Yingna Hu, Xiaowei |
author_sort | Su, Xing |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Understanding the patterns and trends in the context of both incidence and mortality and anticipating future trends is important for viral hepatitis prevention, treatment, and guiding resource allocation in China. The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive temporal analysis of acute viral hepatitis and its type using the most updated data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019) to estimate the incidence and mortality of hepatitis from 1990 to 2019 and make predictions to 2030. METHODS: The age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR) of viral hepatitis in China were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019). Trends of ASIR and ASMR for viral hepatitis were plotted using locally weighted regression (LOESS). We used joinpoint regression analysis to detect temporal changes and estimate the annual percent of change (APC) of each trend segment and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). A Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was employed to describe ASIR and ASMR trends between 1990 and 2019 and projections to 2030. RESULTS: In 1990, there were 67 million incident cases of acute viral hepatitis, which then decreased to 47 million incidence cases in 2019. Hepatitis A and hepatitis B account for the majority of acute viral hepatitis, and the most pronounced declines in hepatitis B (−48.7%) and hepatitis C (−39.0%) were observed between 1990 and 2019. The ASIR of overall acute viral hepatitis shows a persistent decline, with an average annual percent of change (AAPC) of −1.9% (95% CI: −1.9, −1.8) between 1990 and 2019. The trend of ASMR demonstrated a rapid decline between 1990 and 2005, followed by a slow decline until 2030. CONCLUSION: Our study reveals favorable declining trends of incidence and mortality for acute viral hepatitis in China from 1990 and 2019, and these favorable trends are predicted to continue up to 2030. Despite the favorable trends observed, the absolute number of viral hepatitis, especially hepatitis A and B, is still substantial in China. A scaled-up vaccine campaign is still needed to tackle the large number of vaccine preventable hepatitis infections. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8962367 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-89623672022-03-30 Secular Trends of Acute Viral Hepatitis Incidence and Mortality in China, 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction to 2030: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Su, Xing Zheng, Lin Zhang, Huami Shen, Ting Liu, Yingna Hu, Xiaowei Front Med (Lausanne) Medicine BACKGROUND: Understanding the patterns and trends in the context of both incidence and mortality and anticipating future trends is important for viral hepatitis prevention, treatment, and guiding resource allocation in China. The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive temporal analysis of acute viral hepatitis and its type using the most updated data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019) to estimate the incidence and mortality of hepatitis from 1990 to 2019 and make predictions to 2030. METHODS: The age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR) of viral hepatitis in China were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019). Trends of ASIR and ASMR for viral hepatitis were plotted using locally weighted regression (LOESS). We used joinpoint regression analysis to detect temporal changes and estimate the annual percent of change (APC) of each trend segment and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). A Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was employed to describe ASIR and ASMR trends between 1990 and 2019 and projections to 2030. RESULTS: In 1990, there were 67 million incident cases of acute viral hepatitis, which then decreased to 47 million incidence cases in 2019. Hepatitis A and hepatitis B account for the majority of acute viral hepatitis, and the most pronounced declines in hepatitis B (−48.7%) and hepatitis C (−39.0%) were observed between 1990 and 2019. The ASIR of overall acute viral hepatitis shows a persistent decline, with an average annual percent of change (AAPC) of −1.9% (95% CI: −1.9, −1.8) between 1990 and 2019. The trend of ASMR demonstrated a rapid decline between 1990 and 2005, followed by a slow decline until 2030. CONCLUSION: Our study reveals favorable declining trends of incidence and mortality for acute viral hepatitis in China from 1990 and 2019, and these favorable trends are predicted to continue up to 2030. Despite the favorable trends observed, the absolute number of viral hepatitis, especially hepatitis A and B, is still substantial in China. A scaled-up vaccine campaign is still needed to tackle the large number of vaccine preventable hepatitis infections. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-03-11 /pmc/articles/PMC8962367/ /pubmed/35360747 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2022.842088 Text en Copyright © 2022 Su, Zheng, Zhang, Shen, Liu and Hu. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
spellingShingle | Medicine Su, Xing Zheng, Lin Zhang, Huami Shen, Ting Liu, Yingna Hu, Xiaowei Secular Trends of Acute Viral Hepatitis Incidence and Mortality in China, 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction to 2030: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 |
title | Secular Trends of Acute Viral Hepatitis Incidence and Mortality in China, 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction to 2030: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 |
title_full | Secular Trends of Acute Viral Hepatitis Incidence and Mortality in China, 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction to 2030: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 |
title_fullStr | Secular Trends of Acute Viral Hepatitis Incidence and Mortality in China, 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction to 2030: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 |
title_full_unstemmed | Secular Trends of Acute Viral Hepatitis Incidence and Mortality in China, 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction to 2030: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 |
title_short | Secular Trends of Acute Viral Hepatitis Incidence and Mortality in China, 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction to 2030: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 |
title_sort | secular trends of acute viral hepatitis incidence and mortality in china, 1990 to 2019 and its prediction to 2030: the global burden of disease study 2019 |
topic | Medicine |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8962367/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35360747 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2022.842088 |
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