SARS-CoV-2 IgG Seroprevalence among Blood Donors as a Monitor of the COVID-19 Epidemic, Brazil

During epidemics, data from different sources can provide information on varying aspects of the epidemic process. Serology-based epidemiologic surveys could be used to compose a consistent epidemic scenario. We assessed the seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) IgG in serum samples collected from 7,837 blood donors in 7 cities of Brazil during March–December 2020. Based on our results, we propose a modification in a compartmental model that uses reported number of SARS-CoV-2 cases and serology results from blood donors as inputs and delivers estimates of hidden variables, such as daily values of SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates and cumulative incidence rate of reported and unreported SARS-CoV-2 cases. We concluded that the information about cumulative incidence of a disease in a city’s population can be obtained by testing serum samples collected from blood donors. Our proposed method also can be extended to surveillance of other infectious diseases.