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Epidemiological Consequences of Viral Interference: A Mathematical Modeling Study of Two Interacting Viruses

Some viruses have the ability to block or suppress growth of other viruses when simultaneously present in the same host. This type of viral interference or viral block has been suggested as a potential interaction between some respiratory viruses including SARS-CoV-2 and other co-circulating respira...

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Autores principales: Pinky, Lubna, Dobrovolny, Hana M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8966706/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35369460
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2022.830423
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author Pinky, Lubna
Dobrovolny, Hana M.
author_facet Pinky, Lubna
Dobrovolny, Hana M.
author_sort Pinky, Lubna
collection PubMed
description Some viruses have the ability to block or suppress growth of other viruses when simultaneously present in the same host. This type of viral interference or viral block has been suggested as a potential interaction between some respiratory viruses including SARS-CoV-2 and other co-circulating respiratory viruses. We explore how one virus' ability to block infection with another within a single host affects spread of the viruses within a susceptible population using a compartmental epidemiological model. We find that population-level effect of viral block is a decrease in the number of people infected with the suppressed virus. This effect is most pronounced when the viruses have similar epidemiological parameters. We use the model to simulate co-circulating epidemics of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and rhinovirus, finding that co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 and RSV causes the most suppression of SARS-CoV-2. Paradoxically, co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza or rhinovirus results in almost no change in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, but causes a shift in the timing of the influenza and rhinovirus epidemics.
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spelling pubmed-89667062022-03-31 Epidemiological Consequences of Viral Interference: A Mathematical Modeling Study of Two Interacting Viruses Pinky, Lubna Dobrovolny, Hana M. Front Microbiol Microbiology Some viruses have the ability to block or suppress growth of other viruses when simultaneously present in the same host. This type of viral interference or viral block has been suggested as a potential interaction between some respiratory viruses including SARS-CoV-2 and other co-circulating respiratory viruses. We explore how one virus' ability to block infection with another within a single host affects spread of the viruses within a susceptible population using a compartmental epidemiological model. We find that population-level effect of viral block is a decrease in the number of people infected with the suppressed virus. This effect is most pronounced when the viruses have similar epidemiological parameters. We use the model to simulate co-circulating epidemics of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and rhinovirus, finding that co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 and RSV causes the most suppression of SARS-CoV-2. Paradoxically, co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza or rhinovirus results in almost no change in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, but causes a shift in the timing of the influenza and rhinovirus epidemics. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-03-11 /pmc/articles/PMC8966706/ /pubmed/35369460 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2022.830423 Text en Copyright © 2022 Pinky and Dobrovolny. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Microbiology
Pinky, Lubna
Dobrovolny, Hana M.
Epidemiological Consequences of Viral Interference: A Mathematical Modeling Study of Two Interacting Viruses
title Epidemiological Consequences of Viral Interference: A Mathematical Modeling Study of Two Interacting Viruses
title_full Epidemiological Consequences of Viral Interference: A Mathematical Modeling Study of Two Interacting Viruses
title_fullStr Epidemiological Consequences of Viral Interference: A Mathematical Modeling Study of Two Interacting Viruses
title_full_unstemmed Epidemiological Consequences of Viral Interference: A Mathematical Modeling Study of Two Interacting Viruses
title_short Epidemiological Consequences of Viral Interference: A Mathematical Modeling Study of Two Interacting Viruses
title_sort epidemiological consequences of viral interference: a mathematical modeling study of two interacting viruses
topic Microbiology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8966706/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35369460
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2022.830423
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