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Disentangling snakebite dynamics in Colombia: How does rainfall and temperature drive snakebite temporal patterns?

The role of climate driving zoonotic diseases’ population dynamics has typically been addressed via retrospective analyses of national aggregated incidence records. A central question in epidemiology has been whether seasonal and interannual cycles are driven by climate variation or generated by soc...

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Autores principales: Bravo-Vega, Carlos, Santos-Vega, Mauricio, Cordovez, Juan Manuel
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8970366/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35358190
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010270
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author Bravo-Vega, Carlos
Santos-Vega, Mauricio
Cordovez, Juan Manuel
author_facet Bravo-Vega, Carlos
Santos-Vega, Mauricio
Cordovez, Juan Manuel
author_sort Bravo-Vega, Carlos
collection PubMed
description The role of climate driving zoonotic diseases’ population dynamics has typically been addressed via retrospective analyses of national aggregated incidence records. A central question in epidemiology has been whether seasonal and interannual cycles are driven by climate variation or generated by socioeconomic factors. Here, we use compartmental models to quantify the role of rainfall and temperature in the dynamics of snakebite, which is one of the primary neglected tropical diseases. We took advantage of space-time datasets of snakebite incidence, rainfall, and temperature for Colombia and combined it with stochastic compartmental models and iterated filtering methods to show the role of rainfall-driven seasonality modulating the encounter frequency with venomous snakes. Then we identified six zones with different rainfall patterns to demonstrate that the relationship between rainfall and snakebite incidence was heterogeneous in space. We show that rainfall only drives snakebite incidence in regions with marked dry seasons, where rainfall becomes the limiting resource, while temperature does not modulate snakebite incidence. In addition, the encounter frequency differs between regions, and it is higher in regions where Bothrops atrox can be found. Our results show how the heterogeneous spatial distribution of snakebite risk seasonality in the country may be related to important traits of venomous snakes’ natural history.
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spelling pubmed-89703662022-04-01 Disentangling snakebite dynamics in Colombia: How does rainfall and temperature drive snakebite temporal patterns? Bravo-Vega, Carlos Santos-Vega, Mauricio Cordovez, Juan Manuel PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article The role of climate driving zoonotic diseases’ population dynamics has typically been addressed via retrospective analyses of national aggregated incidence records. A central question in epidemiology has been whether seasonal and interannual cycles are driven by climate variation or generated by socioeconomic factors. Here, we use compartmental models to quantify the role of rainfall and temperature in the dynamics of snakebite, which is one of the primary neglected tropical diseases. We took advantage of space-time datasets of snakebite incidence, rainfall, and temperature for Colombia and combined it with stochastic compartmental models and iterated filtering methods to show the role of rainfall-driven seasonality modulating the encounter frequency with venomous snakes. Then we identified six zones with different rainfall patterns to demonstrate that the relationship between rainfall and snakebite incidence was heterogeneous in space. We show that rainfall only drives snakebite incidence in regions with marked dry seasons, where rainfall becomes the limiting resource, while temperature does not modulate snakebite incidence. In addition, the encounter frequency differs between regions, and it is higher in regions where Bothrops atrox can be found. Our results show how the heterogeneous spatial distribution of snakebite risk seasonality in the country may be related to important traits of venomous snakes’ natural history. Public Library of Science 2022-03-31 /pmc/articles/PMC8970366/ /pubmed/35358190 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010270 Text en © 2022 Bravo-Vega et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Bravo-Vega, Carlos
Santos-Vega, Mauricio
Cordovez, Juan Manuel
Disentangling snakebite dynamics in Colombia: How does rainfall and temperature drive snakebite temporal patterns?
title Disentangling snakebite dynamics in Colombia: How does rainfall and temperature drive snakebite temporal patterns?
title_full Disentangling snakebite dynamics in Colombia: How does rainfall and temperature drive snakebite temporal patterns?
title_fullStr Disentangling snakebite dynamics in Colombia: How does rainfall and temperature drive snakebite temporal patterns?
title_full_unstemmed Disentangling snakebite dynamics in Colombia: How does rainfall and temperature drive snakebite temporal patterns?
title_short Disentangling snakebite dynamics in Colombia: How does rainfall and temperature drive snakebite temporal patterns?
title_sort disentangling snakebite dynamics in colombia: how does rainfall and temperature drive snakebite temporal patterns?
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8970366/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35358190
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010270
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