The Effects of Tobacco Coverage in the Public Communication Environment on Young People’s Decisions to Smoke Combustible Cigarettes(†)

In today’s complex media environment, does media coverage influence youth and young adults’ (YYA) tobacco use and intentions? We conceptualize the “public communication environment” and effect mediators, then ask whether over time variation in exogenously measured tobacco media coverage from mass and social media sources predicts daily YYA cigarette smoking intentions measured in a rolling nationally representative phone survey (N = 11,847 on 1,147 days between May 2014 and June 2017). Past week anti-tobacco and pro-tobacco content from Twitter, newspapers, broadcast news, Associated Press, and web blogs made coherent scales (thetas = 0.77 and 0.79). Opportunities for exposure to anti-tobacco content in the past week predicted lower intentions to smoke (Odds ratio [OR] = 0.95, p < .05, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.91–1.00). The effect was stronger among current smokers than among nonsmokers (interaction OR = 0.88, p < .05, 95% CI = 0.77–1.00). These findings support specific effects of anti-tobacco media coverage and illustrate a productive general approach to conceptualizing and assessing effects in the complex media environment.