A Novel Nomogram for Predicting Risk Factors and Outcomes in Bloodstream Infections Caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae

BACKGROUND: Our study aimed to explore the risk factors in bloodstream infections Klebsiella pneumoniae (BSI-KP) patients and establish nomograms to predict the probability of BSI-CRKP and the prognosis of BSI-KP. METHODS: A total of 252 BSI-KP patients were enrolled from a tertiary teaching hospital between January 1, 2015, and May 31, 2020. Risk factors associated with BSI-CRKP and factors associated with the 30-day mortality were identified using LASSO analysis, univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: There were 121 (48.0%) patients with carbapenem-resistant K. pneumoniae (CRKP) and 131 (52.0%) patients with carbapenem-susceptible K. pneumoniae (CSKP). The multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that gastric tube indwelling before BSI (OR=2.442, P=0.043) and more types of antibiotics use before BSI (OR=1.305, P=0.009) were independent risk factors for BSI-CRKP. And previous transplantations, prior ICU stay, gastric tube indwelling before BSI, more types of antibiotics use before BSI, lower Hb and cholinesterase were associated with CRKP-BSI. The C-index of models indicated its good accuracy (C-index 0.816, 95% CI 0.763–0.868). In patients with BSI-CRKP, further logistic regression analysis revealed urinary catheterization (OR=0.298, P=0.017) was found to be an independent risk factor for 30-day mortality, while ceftazidime/avibactam use (OR=8.438, P=0.003) was an independent favorable prognostic factor. The nomogram predicated CRKP, ICU hospitalization, more types of antibiotics use, tigecycline, PLT, urinary catheterization were associated with 30-day mortality in patients with BSI-KP. The discriminative ability of the predictive model, as assessed by C-index, was 0.813 (95% CI: 0.780–0.867). CONCLUSION: Previous transplantations, prior ICU stay, gastric tube indwelling before BSI, more types of antibiotics use before BSI, lower Hb and cholinesterase represent significant risk factors for the development of BSI-CRKP. Our nomogram predicated thrombocytopenia was a sign for poor prognosis. Tigecycline resulted in higher mortality for patients with BSI-KP. Rational use of nomograms may help clinicians make better Clinical decisions when treating BSI-KP patients.