Tumour growth rates of prostate cancer during active surveillance: is there a difference between MRI-visible low and intermediate-risk disease?

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the changes in lesion volume on serial multiparametric magnetic resonance (mpMRI) during active surveillance for prostate cancer. METHODS: A total of 160 patients with a targeted biopsy-confirmed visible lesion on mpMRI, stratified by low- and intermediate-risk disease (Gleason Grade Group 1 vs Gleason Grade Group 2), were analysed. The % change per year was calculated using the formula: [(final volume/initial volume) exp (1/interval between scans in years)]-1. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in the annual median percentage change between Gleason Grade Group 1 (18%) and Gleason Grade Group 2 (23%) disease (p = 0.16), and between ≤ 10% (23%) and > 10% (22%) of Gleason pattern 4 (p = 0.78). Assuming a spherical lesion, these changes corresponded to annual increases in mean tumour diameter of 6% and 7% for Gleason Grade Group 1 and Gleason Grade Group 2 respectively, which may be less than the interscan variability of serial mpMRI. CONCLUSION: In an active surveillance cohort, we did not see a significant difference in the annual growth rate of Gleason Grade Group 1 and 2 tumours. ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE: In patients on active surveillance, the measured growth rates for visible tumours in Gleason Grade Groups 1 and 2 were similar. The annual growth rate was small in most cases and this may have implications for the MRI follow-up interval in active surveillance.