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Assessing the best time interval between doses in a two-dose vaccination regimen to reduce the number of deaths in an ongoing epidemic of SARS-CoV-2

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is a major concern all over the world and, as vaccines became available at the end of 2020, optimal vaccination strategies were subjected to intense investigation. Considering their critical role in reducing disease burden, the increasing demand outpacing production, and that...

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Autores principales: Souto Ferreira, Leonardo, Canton, Otavio, da Silva, Rafael Lopes Paixão, Poloni, Silas, Sudbrack, Vítor, Borges, Marcelo Eduardo, Franco, Caroline, Marquitti, Flavia Maria Darcie, de Moraes, José Cássio, Veras, Maria Amélia de Sousa Mascena, Kraenkel, Roberto André, Coutinho, Renato Mendes
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8986122/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35333872
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009978
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author Souto Ferreira, Leonardo
Canton, Otavio
da Silva, Rafael Lopes Paixão
Poloni, Silas
Sudbrack, Vítor
Borges, Marcelo Eduardo
Franco, Caroline
Marquitti, Flavia Maria Darcie
de Moraes, José Cássio
Veras, Maria Amélia de Sousa Mascena
Kraenkel, Roberto André
Coutinho, Renato Mendes
author_facet Souto Ferreira, Leonardo
Canton, Otavio
da Silva, Rafael Lopes Paixão
Poloni, Silas
Sudbrack, Vítor
Borges, Marcelo Eduardo
Franco, Caroline
Marquitti, Flavia Maria Darcie
de Moraes, José Cássio
Veras, Maria Amélia de Sousa Mascena
Kraenkel, Roberto André
Coutinho, Renato Mendes
author_sort Souto Ferreira, Leonardo
collection PubMed
description The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is a major concern all over the world and, as vaccines became available at the end of 2020, optimal vaccination strategies were subjected to intense investigation. Considering their critical role in reducing disease burden, the increasing demand outpacing production, and that most currently approved vaccines follow a two-dose regimen, the cost-effectiveness of delaying the second dose to increment the coverage of the population receiving the first dose is often debated. Finding the best solution is complex due to the trade-off between vaccinating more people with lower level of protection and guaranteeing higher protection to a fewer number of individuals. Here we present a novel extended age-structured SEIR mathematical model that includes a two-dose vaccination schedule with a between-doses delay modelled through delay differential equations and linear optimization of vaccination rates. By maintaining the minimum stock of vaccines under a given production rate, we evaluate the dose interval that minimizes the number of deaths. We found that the best strategy depends on an interplay between the vaccine production rate and the relative efficacy of the first dose. In the scenario of low first-dose efficacy, it is always better to vaccinate the second dose as soon as possible, while for high first-dose efficacy, the best strategy of time window depends on the production rate and also on second-dose efficacy provided by each type of vaccine. We also found that the rate of spread of the infection does not affect significantly the thresholds of the best window, but is an important factor in the absolute number of total deaths. These conclusions point to the need to carefully take into account both vaccine characteristics and roll-out speed to optimize the outcome of vaccination strategies.
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spelling pubmed-89861222022-04-07 Assessing the best time interval between doses in a two-dose vaccination regimen to reduce the number of deaths in an ongoing epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 Souto Ferreira, Leonardo Canton, Otavio da Silva, Rafael Lopes Paixão Poloni, Silas Sudbrack, Vítor Borges, Marcelo Eduardo Franco, Caroline Marquitti, Flavia Maria Darcie de Moraes, José Cássio Veras, Maria Amélia de Sousa Mascena Kraenkel, Roberto André Coutinho, Renato Mendes PLoS Comput Biol Research Article The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is a major concern all over the world and, as vaccines became available at the end of 2020, optimal vaccination strategies were subjected to intense investigation. Considering their critical role in reducing disease burden, the increasing demand outpacing production, and that most currently approved vaccines follow a two-dose regimen, the cost-effectiveness of delaying the second dose to increment the coverage of the population receiving the first dose is often debated. Finding the best solution is complex due to the trade-off between vaccinating more people with lower level of protection and guaranteeing higher protection to a fewer number of individuals. Here we present a novel extended age-structured SEIR mathematical model that includes a two-dose vaccination schedule with a between-doses delay modelled through delay differential equations and linear optimization of vaccination rates. By maintaining the minimum stock of vaccines under a given production rate, we evaluate the dose interval that minimizes the number of deaths. We found that the best strategy depends on an interplay between the vaccine production rate and the relative efficacy of the first dose. In the scenario of low first-dose efficacy, it is always better to vaccinate the second dose as soon as possible, while for high first-dose efficacy, the best strategy of time window depends on the production rate and also on second-dose efficacy provided by each type of vaccine. We also found that the rate of spread of the infection does not affect significantly the thresholds of the best window, but is an important factor in the absolute number of total deaths. These conclusions point to the need to carefully take into account both vaccine characteristics and roll-out speed to optimize the outcome of vaccination strategies. Public Library of Science 2022-03-25 /pmc/articles/PMC8986122/ /pubmed/35333872 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009978 Text en © 2022 Souto Ferreira et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Souto Ferreira, Leonardo
Canton, Otavio
da Silva, Rafael Lopes Paixão
Poloni, Silas
Sudbrack, Vítor
Borges, Marcelo Eduardo
Franco, Caroline
Marquitti, Flavia Maria Darcie
de Moraes, José Cássio
Veras, Maria Amélia de Sousa Mascena
Kraenkel, Roberto André
Coutinho, Renato Mendes
Assessing the best time interval between doses in a two-dose vaccination regimen to reduce the number of deaths in an ongoing epidemic of SARS-CoV-2
title Assessing the best time interval between doses in a two-dose vaccination regimen to reduce the number of deaths in an ongoing epidemic of SARS-CoV-2
title_full Assessing the best time interval between doses in a two-dose vaccination regimen to reduce the number of deaths in an ongoing epidemic of SARS-CoV-2
title_fullStr Assessing the best time interval between doses in a two-dose vaccination regimen to reduce the number of deaths in an ongoing epidemic of SARS-CoV-2
title_full_unstemmed Assessing the best time interval between doses in a two-dose vaccination regimen to reduce the number of deaths in an ongoing epidemic of SARS-CoV-2
title_short Assessing the best time interval between doses in a two-dose vaccination regimen to reduce the number of deaths in an ongoing epidemic of SARS-CoV-2
title_sort assessing the best time interval between doses in a two-dose vaccination regimen to reduce the number of deaths in an ongoing epidemic of sars-cov-2
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8986122/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35333872
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009978
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