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Forecast of peak attainment and imminent decline after 2017 of oral cancer incidence in men in Taiwan
Oral cancer is the fourth most common cancer among men in Taiwan. The age-standardized incidence rate of oral cancer among men in Taiwan has increased since 1980 and became six times greater in 2014. To enable effective public health planning for oral cancer, research on the projection of oral cance...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8987068/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35388051 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09736-2 |
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author | Jhuang, Jing-Rong Su, Shih-Yung Chiang, Chun-Ju Yang, Ya-Wen Lin, Li-Ju Hsu, Tsui-Hsia Lee, Wen-Chung |
author_facet | Jhuang, Jing-Rong Su, Shih-Yung Chiang, Chun-Ju Yang, Ya-Wen Lin, Li-Ju Hsu, Tsui-Hsia Lee, Wen-Chung |
author_sort | Jhuang, Jing-Rong |
collection | PubMed |
description | Oral cancer is the fourth most common cancer among men in Taiwan. The age-standardized incidence rate of oral cancer among men in Taiwan has increased since 1980 and became six times greater in 2014. To enable effective public health planning for oral cancer, research on the projection of oral cancer burden is essential. We conducted an age-period-cohort analysis on the incidence of oral cancer among men in Taiwan from 1997 to 2017 and extrapolated the trend to 2025. We found that the period trends for young adults aged between 25 and 44 have already peaked before 2017; the younger, the earlier, and then the trends declined. The cohort trends have peaked roughly at the 1972 birth cohort and then declined for all ages. Despite the increasing trend in the age-standardized incidence rate for oral cancer among men in Taiwan from 1997 to 2017, we forecast a peak attained, an imminent decline after 2017, and a decrease of 8.4% in age-standardized incidence rate from 2017 to 2025. The findings of this study contribute to developing efficient and comprehensive strategies for oral cancer prevention and control. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8987068 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-89870682022-04-08 Forecast of peak attainment and imminent decline after 2017 of oral cancer incidence in men in Taiwan Jhuang, Jing-Rong Su, Shih-Yung Chiang, Chun-Ju Yang, Ya-Wen Lin, Li-Ju Hsu, Tsui-Hsia Lee, Wen-Chung Sci Rep Article Oral cancer is the fourth most common cancer among men in Taiwan. The age-standardized incidence rate of oral cancer among men in Taiwan has increased since 1980 and became six times greater in 2014. To enable effective public health planning for oral cancer, research on the projection of oral cancer burden is essential. We conducted an age-period-cohort analysis on the incidence of oral cancer among men in Taiwan from 1997 to 2017 and extrapolated the trend to 2025. We found that the period trends for young adults aged between 25 and 44 have already peaked before 2017; the younger, the earlier, and then the trends declined. The cohort trends have peaked roughly at the 1972 birth cohort and then declined for all ages. Despite the increasing trend in the age-standardized incidence rate for oral cancer among men in Taiwan from 1997 to 2017, we forecast a peak attained, an imminent decline after 2017, and a decrease of 8.4% in age-standardized incidence rate from 2017 to 2025. The findings of this study contribute to developing efficient and comprehensive strategies for oral cancer prevention and control. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-04-06 /pmc/articles/PMC8987068/ /pubmed/35388051 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09736-2 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Jhuang, Jing-Rong Su, Shih-Yung Chiang, Chun-Ju Yang, Ya-Wen Lin, Li-Ju Hsu, Tsui-Hsia Lee, Wen-Chung Forecast of peak attainment and imminent decline after 2017 of oral cancer incidence in men in Taiwan |
title | Forecast of peak attainment and imminent decline after 2017 of oral cancer incidence in men in Taiwan |
title_full | Forecast of peak attainment and imminent decline after 2017 of oral cancer incidence in men in Taiwan |
title_fullStr | Forecast of peak attainment and imminent decline after 2017 of oral cancer incidence in men in Taiwan |
title_full_unstemmed | Forecast of peak attainment and imminent decline after 2017 of oral cancer incidence in men in Taiwan |
title_short | Forecast of peak attainment and imminent decline after 2017 of oral cancer incidence in men in Taiwan |
title_sort | forecast of peak attainment and imminent decline after 2017 of oral cancer incidence in men in taiwan |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8987068/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35388051 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09736-2 |
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