Association between the Suita Score and Stroke Recurrence in Patients with First-ever Ischemic Stroke: A Prospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE: The Suita score is used to predict the 10-year prognosis of developing coronary heart disease (CHD). This study examined the association between the Suita score and stroke recurrence within one year in Japanese patients who experienced first-ever ischemic stroke. METHODS: This prospective cohort study at a stroke center in Japan included patients who experienced first-ever acute ischemic stroke (AIS) or a transient ischemic attack (TIA). During hospitalization, the Suita score was measured as the main exposure. Patients with a ≥5% predicted CHD risk were classified into the high-risk group. The primary outcome was stroke recurrence within one year of the stroke onset. A multivariate Cox regression analysis was conducted and adjusted for confounding and prognostic factors. RESULTS: Among the 1,204 patients evaluated, 937 (78%) were classified as having a high risk of developing CHD. Stroke recurrence was observed in 66 patients during the follow-up period. In the multivariate analysis, after adjusting for confounding and prognostic factors, such as non-small vessel occlusion and prescription of lipid-lowering agents at the time of discharge, a ≥5% predicted CHD risk was associated with the 1-year stroke recurrence after the initial onset [adjusted hazard ratio (HR)=2.20, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.00-4.91, p=0.049; adjusted HR=2.00, 95% CI=1.01-4.14, p=0.048; adjusted HR=0.42, 95% CI=0.24-0.73, p=0.002]. CONCLUSION: The Suita score, adapted for use in ischemic stroke with the same mechanism, correlated with the short-term recurrence within one year. Our findings suggest that the Suita score may be useful for predicting the long-term prognosis of developing CHD as well as the short-term recurrence for patients with first-ever AIS and TIA.