CARE Score on Chest Radiograph at Diagnosis Predicts Early and Late Outcomes Among Lung Transplant Patients with COVID-19

PURPOSE: To assess the ability of an objective radiographic scoring system to predict outcomes among lung transplant (LT) patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: We included all LT patients diagnosed with COVID-19 during a one-year period (March 2020 to Feb 2021; n=54; median age: 60, 20-73 years; M:F 37:17) in our program. Patient characteristics and laboratory values during the acute illness were reviewed. Chest radiographs at time of COVID-19 diagnosis were scored by extent of ground-glass opacity and consolidation using the CARE score (0-18 for each lung). The CARE score was calculated using only the allograft in single LT and the average of both lungs in bilateral LT. Primary outcome was six-month survival after COVID-19. Hospital complications and one-month survival were secondary outcomes. RESULTS: A minority of patients had a clear allograft (CARE=0, n=12, 22.2%) at presentation. The median score was 2 (interquartile range 0.5-4.625), indicating mild abnormalities. Demographics, underlying diagnosis, comorbidities, symptoms, and spirometry changes were not associated with the baseline CARE score. Baseline CARE score >5 was strongly associated with development of respiratory failure (91.7% vs 35.7%; OR, 95% CI: 19.8, 2.3-168.7; p=0.001), ICU admission (p<0.001), need for ventilator support (p<0.001), and one-month mortality (41.7% vs 2.4%; OR, 95% CI: 29.4, 2.96-333.3; p=0.001). Overall six-month survival was 81.5%. The CARE score was significantly higher among non-survivors (7.7±4.1 vs 2.2±2.7; p=0.002). Patients with a CARE score>5 at diagnosis were significantly less likely to survive at six-month follow-up (41.7%.vs 92.3%; p<0.001). The CARE score had an excellent area under the curve (86.8%, 74.4%-99.2%; p<0.001) on the Receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting six-month survival after COVID-19. CONCLUSION: The CARE score at time of COVID-19 diagnosis provides useful prognostic information among patients with LT.