“Quarantined within a quarantine”: COVID-19 and GIS Dynamic Scenario Modeling in Tasmania, Australia

When the Australian state and lone isle of Tasmania went into coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) quarantine lockdown in March, within a quarantine-imposed Australian continent, thinking it was being very prudent, unforeseen was the lurking virus. Australia across January had been watching the global northern hemisphere scenario occurring and by February was preparing to quarantine itself, echoing its existing and long-term biosecurity exclusion regime. On a much grander scale, following through on a previously trialed national pandemic training exercise, no one had factored in the Ruby Princess variable and its major consequences that would require unprecedented pandemic response. The concentrated impact of cruise ship virus dissemination and escalation has been palpable across the world, but the Ruby Princess will remain a disaster in Australia's history. For Tasmania, several elderly passengers retraveled from Sydney to Tasmania, and a minor cluster has occurred. This chapter contextualizes what has been transpiring in Australia with the pandemic, with particular attention upon Tasmania, including discussion about the new COVIDSafe.App, and then explains the potential application of a Systems Dynamics Modeling exercise of the COVID-19 spread, in collaboration with a custom-built 2D/3D geographic information system (GIS) Dynamic Scenario Planning Model to spatially visualize potential “what-if” scenarios of COVID-19 spread (and other future pandemics) to identify high-risk areas and vulnerable communities in the northern areas of Tasmania that is aiding real-time pattern mapping and preparation work and to further consider and enable the most effective emergency response and recovery scenarios.