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Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature over the Pan-Third Pole region
The Pan-Third Pole (PTP) region, which encompasses the Eurasian highlands and their surroundings, has experienced unprecedented, accelerated warming during the past decades. This study evaluates the performance of historical simulation runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in cap...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Springer Berlin Heidelberg
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8989916/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34851485 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17474-7 |
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author | Fan, Xuewei Duan, Qingyun Shen, Chenwei Wu, Yi Xing, Chang |
author_facet | Fan, Xuewei Duan, Qingyun Shen, Chenwei Wu, Yi Xing, Chang |
author_sort | Fan, Xuewei |
collection | PubMed |
description | The Pan-Third Pole (PTP) region, which encompasses the Eurasian highlands and their surroundings, has experienced unprecedented, accelerated warming during the past decades. This study evaluates the performance of historical simulation runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in capturing spatial patterns and temporal variations observed over the PTP region for mean and extreme temperatures. In addition, projected changes in temperatures under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) are also reported. Four indices were used to characterize changes in temperature extremes: the annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx), the annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TNn), and indices for the percentage of warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p). Results indicate that most CMIP6 models generally capture the characteristics of the observed mean and extreme temperatures over the PTP region, but there still are slight cold biases in the Tibetan Plateau. Future changes of mean and extreme temperatures demonstrate that a strong increase will occur for the entire PTP region during the twenty-first century under all four SSP scenarios. Between 2015 and 2099, ensemble area-averaged annual mean temperatures are projected to increase by 1.24 °C/100 year, 3.28 °C/100 year, 5.57 °C/100 year, and 7.40 °C/100 year for the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. For TXx and TNn, the most intense warming is projected in Central Asia. The greatest number of projected TX90p and TN90p will occur in the Southeast Asia and Tibetan Plateau, respectively. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-021-17474-7. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8989916 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-89899162022-04-22 Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature over the Pan-Third Pole region Fan, Xuewei Duan, Qingyun Shen, Chenwei Wu, Yi Xing, Chang Environ Sci Pollut Res Int Research Article The Pan-Third Pole (PTP) region, which encompasses the Eurasian highlands and their surroundings, has experienced unprecedented, accelerated warming during the past decades. This study evaluates the performance of historical simulation runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in capturing spatial patterns and temporal variations observed over the PTP region for mean and extreme temperatures. In addition, projected changes in temperatures under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) are also reported. Four indices were used to characterize changes in temperature extremes: the annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx), the annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TNn), and indices for the percentage of warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p). Results indicate that most CMIP6 models generally capture the characteristics of the observed mean and extreme temperatures over the PTP region, but there still are slight cold biases in the Tibetan Plateau. Future changes of mean and extreme temperatures demonstrate that a strong increase will occur for the entire PTP region during the twenty-first century under all four SSP scenarios. Between 2015 and 2099, ensemble area-averaged annual mean temperatures are projected to increase by 1.24 °C/100 year, 3.28 °C/100 year, 5.57 °C/100 year, and 7.40 °C/100 year for the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. For TXx and TNn, the most intense warming is projected in Central Asia. The greatest number of projected TX90p and TN90p will occur in the Southeast Asia and Tibetan Plateau, respectively. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-021-17474-7. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2021-12-01 2022 /pmc/articles/PMC8989916/ /pubmed/34851485 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17474-7 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Research Article Fan, Xuewei Duan, Qingyun Shen, Chenwei Wu, Yi Xing, Chang Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature over the Pan-Third Pole region |
title | Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature over the Pan-Third Pole region |
title_full | Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature over the Pan-Third Pole region |
title_fullStr | Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature over the Pan-Third Pole region |
title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature over the Pan-Third Pole region |
title_short | Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature over the Pan-Third Pole region |
title_sort | evaluation of historical cmip6 model simulations and future projections of temperature over the pan-third pole region |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8989916/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34851485 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17474-7 |
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