Spontaneous regression rates of actinic keratosis: a systematic review and pooled analysis of randomized controlled trials

Actinic keratosis (AK) are precancerous lesions of the skin which may progress to invasive squamous cell carcinoma. However, single lesions may also persist or even regress and heal spontaneously. Until now, evidence on the natural course of AK including spontaneous regression is limited. We aimed to synthesize regression rates of AK. We performed a systematic literature research in Medline, Embase, and CENTRAL for eligible trials until 3rd March 2020. Spontaneous regression rates were pooled using a random-effects model to calculate pooled proportions of participant-specific and lesion-specific complete clearance rates reported for the placebo arms of randomized controlled trials. Subgroup analyses were performed to dissect differences according to the type of placebo, immunocompetence of the participants, and localization of the lesions. Data from 38 records was included. The pooled participant-specific clearance rate was 8% (95% CI 6–10%, I(2) = 71%) while the lesion-specific clearance rate was 23% (95% CI 16–31%, I(2) = 97%). The highest participant- and lesion-specific clearance rates were achieved 12 weeks after the end of treatment (12% and 33%, respectively). Subgroup analysis revealed participant- as well as lesion-specific clearance rates of 0% for organ transplant recipients (OTR). We conclude that only a few participants achieve complete regression of their AK without any active treatment. Besides, the results underline that lesion clearance without active treatment is unlikely in OTR. Thus, early and consequent treatment of AK is recommended. Special attention should be paid when treating AK of OTR.