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Sensitivity Analysis of a Transmission Interruption Model for the Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections in Kenya
As the world rallies toward the endgame of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) elimination by the year 2030, there is a need for efficient and robust mathematical models that would enable STH programme managers to target the scarce resources and interventions, increase treatment coverage among specific...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8990131/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35400031 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.841883 |
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author | Okoyo, Collins Onyango, Nelson Orowe, Idah Mwandawiro, Charles Medley, Graham |
author_facet | Okoyo, Collins Onyango, Nelson Orowe, Idah Mwandawiro, Charles Medley, Graham |
author_sort | Okoyo, Collins |
collection | PubMed |
description | As the world rallies toward the endgame of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) elimination by the year 2030, there is a need for efficient and robust mathematical models that would enable STH programme managers to target the scarce resources and interventions, increase treatment coverage among specific sub-groups of the population, and develop reliable surveillance systems that meet sensitivity and specificity requirements for the endgame of STH elimination. However, the considerable complexities often associated with STH-transmission models underpin the need for specifying a large number of parameters and inputs, which are often available with considerable degree of uncertainty. Additionally, the model may behave counter-intuitive especially when there are non-linearities in multiple input-output relationships. In this study, we performed a global sensitivity analysis (GSA), based on a variance decomposition method: extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (eFAST), to a recently developed STH-transmission model in Kenya (an STH endemic country) to; (1) robustly compute sensitivity index (SI) for each parameter, (2) rank the parameters in order of their importance (from most to least influential), and (3) quantify the influence of each parameter, singly and cumulatively, on the model output. The sensitivity analysis (SA) results demonstrated that the model outcome (STH worm burden elimination in the human host) was significantly sensitive to some key parameter groupings: combined effect of improved water source and sanitation (ϕ), rounds of treatment offered (τ), efficacy of the drug used during treatment (h), proportion of the adult population treated (g(a): akin to community-wide treatment), mortality rate of the mature worms in the human host (μ), and the strength of the -dependence of worm egg production (γ). For STH control programmes to effectively reach the endgame (STH elimination in the entire community), these key parameter groupings need to be targeted since together they contribute to a strategic public health intervention. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8990131 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-89901312022-04-09 Sensitivity Analysis of a Transmission Interruption Model for the Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections in Kenya Okoyo, Collins Onyango, Nelson Orowe, Idah Mwandawiro, Charles Medley, Graham Front Public Health Public Health As the world rallies toward the endgame of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) elimination by the year 2030, there is a need for efficient and robust mathematical models that would enable STH programme managers to target the scarce resources and interventions, increase treatment coverage among specific sub-groups of the population, and develop reliable surveillance systems that meet sensitivity and specificity requirements for the endgame of STH elimination. However, the considerable complexities often associated with STH-transmission models underpin the need for specifying a large number of parameters and inputs, which are often available with considerable degree of uncertainty. Additionally, the model may behave counter-intuitive especially when there are non-linearities in multiple input-output relationships. In this study, we performed a global sensitivity analysis (GSA), based on a variance decomposition method: extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (eFAST), to a recently developed STH-transmission model in Kenya (an STH endemic country) to; (1) robustly compute sensitivity index (SI) for each parameter, (2) rank the parameters in order of their importance (from most to least influential), and (3) quantify the influence of each parameter, singly and cumulatively, on the model output. The sensitivity analysis (SA) results demonstrated that the model outcome (STH worm burden elimination in the human host) was significantly sensitive to some key parameter groupings: combined effect of improved water source and sanitation (ϕ), rounds of treatment offered (τ), efficacy of the drug used during treatment (h), proportion of the adult population treated (g(a): akin to community-wide treatment), mortality rate of the mature worms in the human host (μ), and the strength of the -dependence of worm egg production (γ). For STH control programmes to effectively reach the endgame (STH elimination in the entire community), these key parameter groupings need to be targeted since together they contribute to a strategic public health intervention. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-03-25 /pmc/articles/PMC8990131/ /pubmed/35400031 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.841883 Text en Copyright © 2022 Okoyo, Onyango, Orowe, Mwandawiro and Medley. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
spellingShingle | Public Health Okoyo, Collins Onyango, Nelson Orowe, Idah Mwandawiro, Charles Medley, Graham Sensitivity Analysis of a Transmission Interruption Model for the Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections in Kenya |
title | Sensitivity Analysis of a Transmission Interruption Model for the Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections in Kenya |
title_full | Sensitivity Analysis of a Transmission Interruption Model for the Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections in Kenya |
title_fullStr | Sensitivity Analysis of a Transmission Interruption Model for the Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections in Kenya |
title_full_unstemmed | Sensitivity Analysis of a Transmission Interruption Model for the Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections in Kenya |
title_short | Sensitivity Analysis of a Transmission Interruption Model for the Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections in Kenya |
title_sort | sensitivity analysis of a transmission interruption model for the soil-transmitted helminth infections in kenya |
topic | Public Health |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8990131/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35400031 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.841883 |
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