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Timing the race of vaccination, new variants, and relaxing restrictions during COVID-19 pandemic
Late in 2019, China identified a new type of coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, and due to its fast spread, the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared a pandemic named COVID-19. Some variants of this virus were detected, including the Delta, which caused new waves of infections. This work uses an extended v...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Elsevier B.V.
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8990534/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35432632 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jocs.2022.101660 |
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author | Xavier, Carolina Ribeiro Oliveira, Rafael Sachetto Vieira, Vinícius da Fonseca Rocha, Bernardo Martins Reis, Ruy Freitas Quintela, Bárbara de Melo Lobosco, Marcelo Santos, Rodrigo Weber dos |
author_facet | Xavier, Carolina Ribeiro Oliveira, Rafael Sachetto Vieira, Vinícius da Fonseca Rocha, Bernardo Martins Reis, Ruy Freitas Quintela, Bárbara de Melo Lobosco, Marcelo Santos, Rodrigo Weber dos |
author_sort | Xavier, Carolina Ribeiro |
collection | PubMed |
description | Late in 2019, China identified a new type of coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, and due to its fast spread, the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared a pandemic named COVID-19. Some variants of this virus were detected, including the Delta, which caused new waves of infections. This work uses an extended version of a SIRD model that includes vaccination effects to measure the impact of the Delta variant in three countries: Germany, Israel and Brazil. The calibrated models were able to reproduce the dynamics of the above countries. In addition, hypothetical scenarios were simulated to quantify the impact of vaccination and mitigation policies during the Delta wave. The results showed that the model could reproduce the complex dynamics observed in the different countries. The estimated increase of transmission rate due to the Delta variant was highest in Israel (7.9), followed by Germany (2.7) and Brazil (1.5). These values may support the hypothesis that people immunised against COVID-19 may lose their defensive antibodies with time since Israel, Germany, and Brazil fully vaccinated half of the population in March, July, and October. The scenario to study the impact of vaccination revealed relative reductions in the total number of deaths between 30% and 250%; an absolute reduction of 300 thousand deaths in Brazil due to vaccination during the Delta wave. The second hypothetical scenario revealed that mitigation policies saved up to 300 thousand Brazilians; relative reductions in the total number of deaths between 24% and 120% in the three analysed countries. Therefore, the results suggest that both vaccination and mitigation policies were crucial in decreasing the spread and the number of deaths during the Delta wave. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8990534 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Elsevier B.V. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-89905342022-04-11 Timing the race of vaccination, new variants, and relaxing restrictions during COVID-19 pandemic Xavier, Carolina Ribeiro Oliveira, Rafael Sachetto Vieira, Vinícius da Fonseca Rocha, Bernardo Martins Reis, Ruy Freitas Quintela, Bárbara de Melo Lobosco, Marcelo Santos, Rodrigo Weber dos J Comput Sci Article Late in 2019, China identified a new type of coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, and due to its fast spread, the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared a pandemic named COVID-19. Some variants of this virus were detected, including the Delta, which caused new waves of infections. This work uses an extended version of a SIRD model that includes vaccination effects to measure the impact of the Delta variant in three countries: Germany, Israel and Brazil. The calibrated models were able to reproduce the dynamics of the above countries. In addition, hypothetical scenarios were simulated to quantify the impact of vaccination and mitigation policies during the Delta wave. The results showed that the model could reproduce the complex dynamics observed in the different countries. The estimated increase of transmission rate due to the Delta variant was highest in Israel (7.9), followed by Germany (2.7) and Brazil (1.5). These values may support the hypothesis that people immunised against COVID-19 may lose their defensive antibodies with time since Israel, Germany, and Brazil fully vaccinated half of the population in March, July, and October. The scenario to study the impact of vaccination revealed relative reductions in the total number of deaths between 30% and 250%; an absolute reduction of 300 thousand deaths in Brazil due to vaccination during the Delta wave. The second hypothetical scenario revealed that mitigation policies saved up to 300 thousand Brazilians; relative reductions in the total number of deaths between 24% and 120% in the three analysed countries. Therefore, the results suggest that both vaccination and mitigation policies were crucial in decreasing the spread and the number of deaths during the Delta wave. Elsevier B.V. 2022-05 2022-04-08 /pmc/articles/PMC8990534/ /pubmed/35432632 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jocs.2022.101660 Text en © 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Article Xavier, Carolina Ribeiro Oliveira, Rafael Sachetto Vieira, Vinícius da Fonseca Rocha, Bernardo Martins Reis, Ruy Freitas Quintela, Bárbara de Melo Lobosco, Marcelo Santos, Rodrigo Weber dos Timing the race of vaccination, new variants, and relaxing restrictions during COVID-19 pandemic |
title | Timing the race of vaccination, new variants, and relaxing restrictions during COVID-19 pandemic |
title_full | Timing the race of vaccination, new variants, and relaxing restrictions during COVID-19 pandemic |
title_fullStr | Timing the race of vaccination, new variants, and relaxing restrictions during COVID-19 pandemic |
title_full_unstemmed | Timing the race of vaccination, new variants, and relaxing restrictions during COVID-19 pandemic |
title_short | Timing the race of vaccination, new variants, and relaxing restrictions during COVID-19 pandemic |
title_sort | timing the race of vaccination, new variants, and relaxing restrictions during covid-19 pandemic |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8990534/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35432632 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jocs.2022.101660 |
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