Differential Incidence of Malaria in Neighboring Villages in a High-Transmission Setting of Southern Mali

Throughout a phase IIIb/IV efficacy study of repeated treatment with four artemisinin-based combination therapies, significant heterogeneity was found in the number of clinical episodes experienced by individuals during the 2-year follow-up. Several factors, including host, parasite, and environmental factors, may contribute to the differential malaria incidence. We aimed to identify risk factors of malaria incidence in the context of a longitudinal study of the efficacy of different artemisinin-based combination therapy regimens in Bougoula-Hameau, a high-transmission setting in Mali. Risk factors including age, residence, and treatment regimen were compared among individuals experiencing eight or more clinical episodes of malaria (“high-incidence group”) and individuals experiencing up to three clinical episodes (“low-incidence group”). Consistent with the known association between age and malaria risk in high-transmission settings, individuals in the high incidence group were significantly younger than individuals in the low-risk group (mean age, 7.0 years versus 10.6 years, respectively; t-test, P < 0.0001). Compared with individuals receiving artemether-lumefantrine, those receiving artesunate-amodiaquine had greater odds of being in the high-incidence group (odds ratio [OR], 2.24; 95% CI, 1.03 – 4.83, P = 0.041), while individuals receiving dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine had a lower odds of being in high incidence group (OR: 0.30, 95% CI, 0.11–0.85; P = 0.024). Individuals residing in the forested areas of Sokourani and Karamogobougou had significantly greater odds of being in the high-incidence group compared with individuals residing in the semi-urban area of Bougoula-Hameau 1 (Karamogobougou: OR, 3.68; 95% CI, 1.46–9.31; P = 0.0059; Sokourani: OR, 11.46; 95% CI, 4.49–29.2; P < 0.0001). This study highlights the importance of fine-mapping malaria risks even at sub-district levels for targeted and customized interventions.