A retrospective and prospective study to establish a preoperative difficulty predicting model for video-assisted thoracoscopic lobectomy and mediastinal lymph node dissection

BACKGROUND: In previous studies, the difficulty of surgery has rarely been used as a research object. Our study aimed to develop a predictive model to enable preoperative prediction of the technical difficulty of video-assisted thoracoscopic lobectomy and mediastinal lymph node dissection using retrospective data and to validate our findings prospectively. METHODS: Collected data according to the designed data table and took the operation time as the outcome variable. A nomogram to predict the difficulty of surgery was established through Lasso logistic regression. The prospective datasets were analyzed and the outcome was the operation time. RESULTS: This retrospective study enrolled 351 patients and 85 patients were included in the prospective datasets. The variables in the retrospective research were selected by Lasso logistic regression (only used for modeling and not screening), and four significantly related influencing factors were obtained: FEV1/FVC (forced expiratory volume in the first second/forced vital capacity) (p < 0.001, OR, odds ratio = 0.89, 95% CI, confidence interval = 0.84–0.94), FEV1/pred FEV1 (forced expiratory volume in the first second/forced expiratory volume in the first second in predicted) (p = 0.076, OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.95–1.00), history of lung disease (p = 0.027, OR = 4.00, 95% CI = 1.27–15.64), and mediastinal lymph node enlargement or calcification (p < 0.001, OR = 9.78, 95% CI = 5.10–19.69). We used ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curves to evaluate the model. The training set AUC (area under curve) value was 0.877, the test set’s AUC was 0.789, and the model had a good calibration curve. In a prospective study, the data obtained in the research cohort were brought into the model again for verification, and the AUC value was 0.772. CONCLUSION: Our retrospective study identified four preoperative variables that are correlated with a longer surgical time and can be presumed to reflect more difficult surgical procedures. Our prospective study verified that the variables in the prediction model (including prior lung disease, FEV1/pred FEV1, FEV1/FVC, mediastinal lymph node enlargement or calcification) were related to the difficulty.