Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Predicting the Prognosis of Postoperative Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

PURPOSE: The aims of this study were to identify the prognosis-related risk factors for HCC patients after surgery and to develop a predictive model by analysing the medical records of 152 HCC patients in our hospital. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Univariate Cox regression analysis was applied to identify potential risk factors for HCC patients after surgery and to determine independent prognosis-related risk factors by multivariate analysis. Subsequently, a nomogram model was developed based on all independent factors and was validated by a validation set. Calibration and receiver operating characteristic curves were employed to evaluate the accuracy of the model. Finally, decision curve analyses were used to assess its clinical utility. RESULTS: The univariate Cox regression analysis indicated that the patient’s age, sex, grade, different AJCC TNM stages, vascular invasion, lymphatic infiltration, and tumour size were potential prognostic-related risk factors for HCC patients (p < 0.2), and the findings of multivariate analysis revealed that grade, different AJCC TNM stages, vascular invasion, and lymphatic infiltration were independent prognostic-related risk factors for HCC patients (p < 0.05). Subsequently, we constructed a prognosis-related prediction model based on all independent prognostic predictors and validated it with internal and external validation sets. The validation results indicated that the prediction model showed good accuracy (AUC = 0.81, 0.728) and consistency. More importantly, decision curve analysis illustrated that the nomogram model is a practical tool for predicting prognosis. CONCLUSION: This study found that grade, different AJCC TNM stages, vascular invasion, and lymphatic infiltration were independent prognosis-related predictors for HCC patients after surgery, and a nomogram model built on these predictors exhibited great accuracy and clinical usefulness.