Exploring COVID-19 incidence hotspot in Metropolitan area of Pakistan using geo-statistical approach: a study of Lahore city

Globally, COVID-19 is a top level public health concern. This paper is an attempt to identify and assess COVID-19 incidence hotspots in Metropolitan area of Pakistan using geo-statistical approach. The study is based on secondary data. The COVID-19 confirmed cases record (15/03/2020 to 15/04/2020) of entire Metropolitan area is obtained from hospitals and National Institute of Health website. Point-level geo-coding technique was applied on patient’s record and the relative location was converted into absolute location. Getis-Ord Gi* statistical model was applied in ArcGIS 10.3 to calculate Z-score and P values for each point location representing the COVID-19 incidence intensity. Then inverse distance weighted technique of spatial interpolation was applied on Z-score and spatial clusters of crime were geo-visualized in the form hotspot and cold spot. Spatially, more than 50% of land area of Allama Iqbal, Samanabad, Gulburg and Cantonment is covered by very high incidence zone which is surrounded by high incidence zone whereas Ravi, Shalimar, and north of Wagha and Aziz Bhatti towns are located in very low incidence zone. This study provides a suitable methodological framework for identification and analysis infectious disease hotspots. The study can also facilitate health and related authorities to fight war against COVID-19. Similarly, it can help policy makers to manage the movement of travelers and restrict social interaction.