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Validation of an Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy Risk-Prediction Model in a Chinese Cohort

Background: The novel arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC)-associated ventricular arrhythmias (VAs) risk-prediction model endorsed by Cadrin-Tourigny et al. was recently developed to estimate visual VA risk and was identified to be more effective for predicting ventricular events t...

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Autores principales: Zhang, Nixiao, Wang, Chuangshi, Gasperetti, Alessio, Song, Yanyan, Niu, Hongxia, Gu, Min, Duru, Firat, Chen, Liang, Zhang, Shu, Hua, Wei
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8999693/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35407585
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm11071973
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author Zhang, Nixiao
Wang, Chuangshi
Gasperetti, Alessio
Song, Yanyan
Niu, Hongxia
Gu, Min
Duru, Firat
Chen, Liang
Zhang, Shu
Hua, Wei
author_facet Zhang, Nixiao
Wang, Chuangshi
Gasperetti, Alessio
Song, Yanyan
Niu, Hongxia
Gu, Min
Duru, Firat
Chen, Liang
Zhang, Shu
Hua, Wei
author_sort Zhang, Nixiao
collection PubMed
description Background: The novel arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC)-associated ventricular arrhythmias (VAs) risk-prediction model endorsed by Cadrin-Tourigny et al. was recently developed to estimate visual VA risk and was identified to be more effective for predicting ventricular events than the International Task Force Consensus (ITFC) criteria, and the Heart Rhythm Society (HRS) criteria. Data regarding its application in Asians are lacking. Objectives: We aimed to perform an external validation of this algorithm in the Chinese ARVC population. Methods: The study enrolled 88 ARVC patients who received implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) from January 2005 to January 2020. The primary endpoint was appropriate ICD therapies. The novel prediction model was used to calculate a priori predicted VA risk that was compared with the observed rates. Results: During a median follow-up of 3.9 years, 57 (64.8%) patients received the ICD therapy. Patients with implanted ICDs for primary prevention had non-significantly lower rates of ICD therapy than secondary prevention (5-year event rate: 0.46 (0.13–0.66) and 0.80 (0.64–0.89); log-rank p = 0.098). The validation study revealed the C-statistic of 0.833 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.615–1.000), and the predicted and the observed patterns were similar in primary prevention patients (mean predicted–observed risk: −0.07 (95% CI −0.21, 0.09)). However, in secondary prevention patients, the C-statistic was 0.640 (95% CI 0.510–0.770) and the predicted risk was significantly underestimated (mean predicted–observed risk: −0.32 (95% CI −0.39, −0.24)). The recalibration analysis showed that the performance of the prediction model in secondary prevention patients was improved, with the mean predicted–observed risk of −0.04 (95% CI −0.10, 0.03). Conclusions: The novel risk-prediction model had a good fitness to predict arrhythmic risk in Asian ARVC patients for primary prevention, and for secondary prevention patients after recalibration of the baseline risk.
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spelling pubmed-89996932022-04-12 Validation of an Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy Risk-Prediction Model in a Chinese Cohort Zhang, Nixiao Wang, Chuangshi Gasperetti, Alessio Song, Yanyan Niu, Hongxia Gu, Min Duru, Firat Chen, Liang Zhang, Shu Hua, Wei J Clin Med Article Background: The novel arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC)-associated ventricular arrhythmias (VAs) risk-prediction model endorsed by Cadrin-Tourigny et al. was recently developed to estimate visual VA risk and was identified to be more effective for predicting ventricular events than the International Task Force Consensus (ITFC) criteria, and the Heart Rhythm Society (HRS) criteria. Data regarding its application in Asians are lacking. Objectives: We aimed to perform an external validation of this algorithm in the Chinese ARVC population. Methods: The study enrolled 88 ARVC patients who received implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) from January 2005 to January 2020. The primary endpoint was appropriate ICD therapies. The novel prediction model was used to calculate a priori predicted VA risk that was compared with the observed rates. Results: During a median follow-up of 3.9 years, 57 (64.8%) patients received the ICD therapy. Patients with implanted ICDs for primary prevention had non-significantly lower rates of ICD therapy than secondary prevention (5-year event rate: 0.46 (0.13–0.66) and 0.80 (0.64–0.89); log-rank p = 0.098). The validation study revealed the C-statistic of 0.833 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.615–1.000), and the predicted and the observed patterns were similar in primary prevention patients (mean predicted–observed risk: −0.07 (95% CI −0.21, 0.09)). However, in secondary prevention patients, the C-statistic was 0.640 (95% CI 0.510–0.770) and the predicted risk was significantly underestimated (mean predicted–observed risk: −0.32 (95% CI −0.39, −0.24)). The recalibration analysis showed that the performance of the prediction model in secondary prevention patients was improved, with the mean predicted–observed risk of −0.04 (95% CI −0.10, 0.03). Conclusions: The novel risk-prediction model had a good fitness to predict arrhythmic risk in Asian ARVC patients for primary prevention, and for secondary prevention patients after recalibration of the baseline risk. MDPI 2022-04-01 /pmc/articles/PMC8999693/ /pubmed/35407585 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm11071973 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Zhang, Nixiao
Wang, Chuangshi
Gasperetti, Alessio
Song, Yanyan
Niu, Hongxia
Gu, Min
Duru, Firat
Chen, Liang
Zhang, Shu
Hua, Wei
Validation of an Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy Risk-Prediction Model in a Chinese Cohort
title Validation of an Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy Risk-Prediction Model in a Chinese Cohort
title_full Validation of an Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy Risk-Prediction Model in a Chinese Cohort
title_fullStr Validation of an Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy Risk-Prediction Model in a Chinese Cohort
title_full_unstemmed Validation of an Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy Risk-Prediction Model in a Chinese Cohort
title_short Validation of an Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy Risk-Prediction Model in a Chinese Cohort
title_sort validation of an arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy risk-prediction model in a chinese cohort
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8999693/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35407585
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm11071973
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