The predictive validity of admission criteria for the results of clinical competency assessment with an emphasis on family medicine in the fifth year of medical education: an observational study

BACKGROUND: In many countries, the number of applicants to medical schools exceeds the number of available places. This offers the need, as well as the opportunity to medical schools to select those applicants most suitable for later work as a doctor. However, there is no generally accepted definition of a ‘good doctor’. Clinical competencies may serve as surrogates. The aim of this study was to compare medical students in Germany selected based either on their pre-university grade point average alone or based on the result of a university-specific selection procedure regarding their clinical competencies with an emphasis on family medicine in the later years of training. METHODS: We used the ‘Allgemeinarztbarometer Ausbildung’ (Undergraduate Family Medicine Barometer), an instrument developed to assess clinical competencies with an emphasis on family medicine, to compare students in the pre-university grade point average admission-quota and the university-specific selection procedure admission-quota in the fifth year of training. Students were judged by their supervising general practitioners after a two-week practical course. Competencies were rated on a five-point Likert-scale (1 = ‘totally agree’ i.e. the student is very competent to 5 = ‘totally disagree’ i.e. the student is not competent at all). RESULTS: We included 94 students (66% female). Students in the university-specific selection procedure quota (n = 80) showed better mean scores in every item of the Undergraduate Family Medicine Barometer. We found a statistically significant difference between the two groups for the item assessing communication skills (M [university-specific selection procedure quota] = 1.81, SD = 0.84 vs. M [pu-GPA quota] = 2.38, SD = 0.96; t[91] = -2.23, p = .03; medium effect size). Logistic regression revealed no statistically significant age or gender contribution. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the small sample-size, our results indicate, that students selected via an university-specific selection procedure show better communicative competencies in the later years of training. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12909-022-03293-y.