The number of cycles of adjuvant chemotherapy in stage III and high-risk stage II rectal cancer: a nomogram and recursive partitioning analysis

OBJECTIVE: The prognostic role of the number of cycles of adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) after total mesorectal excision in stage III and high-risk stage II rectal cancer is unknown. As a result of this, our study was designed to assess the effect of the number of cycles of ACT on the prediction of cancer-specific survival. METHODS: Four hundred patients that were diagnosed as stage III and high-risk stage II rectal cancer from January 2012 to January 2018 and who had received total mesorectal excision were enrolled in this study. A nomogram incorporating the number of cycles of ACT was also developed in this study. For internal validation, the bootstrap method was used and the consistency index was used to evaluate the accuracy of the model. The patients were stratified into risk groups according to their tumor characteristics by recursive partitioning analysis. RESULTS: We found that the risk of death was decreased by 26% (HR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.61–0.89, P = 0.0016) with each increasing ACT cycle. The N stage, positive lymph node ratio (PLNR), carcinoembryonic antigen, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and the number of cycles of ACT were chosen and entered into the nomogram model. Recursive partitioning analysis-based risk stratification revealed a significant difference in the prognosis in rectal cancer patients with high-risk, intermediate-risk, and low-risk (3-year cancer-specific survival: 0.246 vs. 0.795 vs. 0.968, P < 0.0001). Seven or more cycles of ACT yielded better survival in patients with PLNR ≥ 0.28 but not in patients with PLNR < 0.28. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, the nomogram prognosis model based on the number of cycles of ACT predicted individual prognosis in rectal cancer patients who had undergone total mesorectal excision. These findings further showed that in patients with PLNR ≥ 0.28, no fewer than 7 cycles of ACT are needed to significantly reduce the patient’s risk of death.