Trajectory to local extinction of an isolated dugong population near Okinawa Island, Japan

A small animal population becomes extinct owing to demographic and environmental stochasticity after declining below the minimum viable population (MVP). However, the actual process of extinction derived by stochastic factors after crossing MVP has not been recorded for long-lived marine mammals. Here, we reconstructed the declining history of a small, isolated population of dugongs in Okinawa over 125 years. The initial population size of approximately 280–420 in the nineteenth century declined to approximately < 100 in 1917 because of overfishing, < 70 in 1979, 11 in 1997, 3 after 2006, and all known individuals disappeared or died by 2019. After 1979, a decline in the natural growth rate has led to extinction. Long-lived animals may persist for a few decades after the population falls below the MVP, at which time active conservation measures, such as captive breeding, should be implemented.