Clinical, social, and policy factors in COVID-19 cases and deaths: methodological considerations for feature selection and modeling in county-level analyses

BACKGROUND: There is a need to evaluate how the choice of time interval contributes to the lack of consistency of SDoH variables that appear as important to COVID-19 disease burden within an analysis for both case counts and death counts. METHODS: This study identified SDoH variables associated with U.S county-level COVID-19 cumulative case and death incidence for six different periods: the first 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, and 180 days since each county had COVID-19 one case per 10,000 residents. The set of SDoH variables were in the following domains: resource deprivation, access to care/health resources, population characteristics, traveling behavior, vulnerable populations, and health status. A generalized variance inflation factor (GVIF) analysis was used to identify variables with high multicollinearity. For each dependent variable, a separate model was built for each of the time periods. We used a mixed-effect generalized linear modeling of counts normalized per 100,000 population using negative binomial regression. We performed a Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness of fit test, an outlier test, and a dispersion test for each model. Sensitivity analysis included altering the county start date to the day each county reached 10 COVID-19 cases per 10,000. RESULTS: Ninety-seven percent (3059/3140) of the counties were represented in the final analysis. Six features proved important for both the main and sensitivity analysis: adults-with-college-degree, days-sheltering-in-place-at-start, prior-seven-day-median-time-home, percent-black, percent-foreign-born, over-65-years-of-age, black-white-segregation, and days-since-pandemic-start. These variables belonged to the following categories: COVID-19 related, vulnerable populations, and population characteristics. Our diagnostic results show that across our outcomes, the models of the shorter time periods (30 days, 60 days, and 900 days) have a better fit. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate that the set of SDoH features that are significant for COVID-19 outcomes varies based on the time from the start date of the pandemic and when COVID-19 was present in a county. These results could assist researchers with variable selection and inform decision makers when creating public health policy. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13168-y.